Tesla shares surged 6.26% on Monday, June 29, 2026, after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration closed its investigation into power steering issues affecting 376,241 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles—while Elon Musk’s latest self-driving forecast remains behind his own public timelines.
Wall Street analysts raised delivery estimates for Tesla’s second quarter, but Musk’s repeated promises of fully autonomous robotaxis by mid-2025—now down to just 39 operational vehicles—highlight a growing disconnect between hype and execution. Meanwhile, Tesla’s AI ambitions, including xAI’s Grok 4.5 model, are quietly advancing at SpaceX and Tesla, even as the company’s core business trades on hope more than fundamentals.
The Rally’s Two Drivers: Safety Clearance and Analyst Optimism
Tesla’s stock jump came on two fronts. First, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formally closed its review of power steering failures in 376,241 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year—after Tesla’s over-the-air software fix and a reported decline in owner complaints. The agency’s decision, announced without fanfare, cleared a regulatory hurdle that had loomed over Tesla’s production and customer confidence.
Second, Wall Street analysts upgraded Tesla’s delivery forecasts for the quarter. Morgan Stanley raised its estimate to 413,000 vehicles—up from 373,000—citing stronger demand in Europe and China, while Barclays projected approximately 418,000 deliveries, both well above prior expectations. The revisions, though modest, reinforced a narrative of gradual recovery after a sluggish first quarter.
Yet the rally’s undercurrent is less about fundamentals than about Musk’s ability to keep investors betting on future promises. As InvestingLive noted, Tesla’s share price now trades at 380x earnings—a valuation that relies almost entirely on unproven bets, like self-driving and humanoid robots, rather than current profitability.
Musk’s Self-Driving Forecast: A Timeline of Broken Promises
Musk’s track record on autonomous driving is a study in overpromising. In 2015, he declared full autonomy would arrive “in approximately two years.” By 2016, he called autonomous driving “a basically solved problem.” Last year, he predicted “millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year”—yet as of June 2026, only 39 robotaxis are in operation.
“There will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year.”
—Elon Musk, June 2025
The pattern isn’t new. A Wikipedia entry now tracks Musk’s repeated forecasts, each more aggressive than the last, with no corresponding reality. The latest iteration? A 2024 promise of “genuinely useful” humanoid robots in Tesla’s factories—demos from late last year were widely panned as underwhelming. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s pivot to “data centers in space” as its primary product has further diluted focus on Tesla’s core business.
The AI Angle: Grok 4.5 and Tesla’s Quiet Bet on xAI
While Tesla’s stock rallies on self-driving hype, the company’s AI ambitions are advancing in stealth mode. TradingView reported that Elon Musk’s xAI has entered private beta testing for Grok 4.5, a model built on a 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation. The testing is occurring internally at Tesla and SpaceX, suggesting deeper integration between the two companies’ AI efforts.
This quiet collaboration contrasts sharply with Tesla’s public struggles. The Grok 4.5 project, though still in beta, represents a rare instance where Musk’s AI ambitions are moving forward—even if the broader autonomous driving timeline remains a fantasy. For now, Tesla’s stock is riding on two things: regulatory clearance for a software fix and the hope that AI, not self-driving, will eventually deliver on the hype.
What’s Next: The Valuation Paradox
Tesla’s stock performance tells two conflicting stories. On one hand, the NHTSA clearance and analyst upgrades suggest a company regaining its footing. On the other, the gap between Musk’s promises and reality widens daily. With self-driving still years away from viability and humanoid robots little more than a demo, Tesla’s valuation hinges on the assumption that one day—someday—these bets will pay off.
For investors, the question isn’t whether Tesla can deliver on its promises, but whether the market will keep betting on them. The rally today may be a sign of optimism, but the underlying math remains unsustainable. As InvestingLive put it: “It’s all on hope, promises, and gullibility.”
The next catalyst could be a working demo of full autonomy—or a major setback in AI development. Until then, Tesla’s stock will keep dancing to the tune of Musk’s next big promise.
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