Political movements across Europe are shifting from an anti-establishment strategy of seeking “exits” from the European Union to a tactical approach of institutional capture, according to British political scientist Hugo Drochon. In a June 2026 interview with Le Grand Continent, Drochon argues that the rise of right-wing populism is not a breakdown of democratic order, but a classic historical “circulation of elites” where new power groups seek to control existing European institutions from within rather than dismantling them.
Why are populist movements abandoning the “exit” strategy?
The failure of movements to replicate the 2016 Brexit referendum across the continent has forced a change in strategy. According to Drochon, nationalist parties have learned that the economic and political costs of leaving the European Union are prohibitive. Instead, these groups are now focused on “colonizing” the EU from the inside. By capturing seats in the European Parliament and influencing national governments that hold sway in the European Council, these parties aim to reshape the bloc’s policies—such as immigration and trade—without triggering a formal withdrawal. This mirrors Vilfredo Pareto’s theory that elites do not disappear; they are merely replaced by new groups that adapt to the current system.
How do “foxes” and “lions” define current politics?
Drochon utilizes Pareto’s classic distinction between “foxes”—leaders who rely on negotiation, compromise, and institutional maneuvering—and “lions,” who prioritize authority, unity, and raw political force. For decades, the European project was defined by “foxes,” the liberal elite focused on global integration. However, the last decade has seen a global resurgence of “lions,” including figures like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Drochon suggests this trend reflects a growing public demand for decisive, centralized authority, marking a departure from the consensus-driven governance that characterized the post-Cold War era.
What is the “iron law of oligarchy” in modern parties?
Robert Michels’ “iron law of oligarchy” posits that all organizations, regardless of how democratically they are founded, eventually concentrate power in the hands of a small leadership clique. Drochon notes that this concept remains central to understanding the current crisis of representation in traditional political parties. As these parties become more centralized, they often fail to integrate new social forces, creating a power vacuum. This disconnect provides an opening for new, outsider elites to claim they represent the “true” will of the people, effectively using the same organizational structures they claim to despise.
Comparison: Traditional vs. Emerging Political Models
| Feature | Traditional Liberal Elite | Emerging “Lion” Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Tool | Negotiation and Consensus | Authority and Sovereignty |
| EU Strategy | Deepening Integration | Capturing Institutional Power |
| Source of Legitimacy | Institutional Continuity | Direct Populist Appeal |
Does the future of democracy require constant turnover?
Drochon argues against a purely pessimistic view, proposing the concept of “dynamic democracy.” Under this model, democracy is not merely about elections, but functions as a “perpetual challenge” launched by rising elites against established ones. The primary danger for the European Union, according to Drochon, is its current inability to absorb these new social forces. Without mechanisms to renew its leadership and integrate emerging movements, the EU risks institutional stagnation. The goal for a stable democracy, therefore, is to create channels where these power struggles can occur without causing systemic rupture.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “circulation of elites”?
It is a political theory suggesting that history is not a struggle between the masses and the elites, but a process where one governing group is replaced by another as economic and social conditions change.
Why do populist parties no longer push for leaving the EU?
According to Hugo Drochon, these parties have realized that influencing the EU from within is more effective and less costly than the logistical and economic disruption caused by exiting the union.
What is the “iron law of oligarchy”?
Developed by Robert Michels, it states that all democratic organizations eventually develop into oligarchies because power inevitably concentrates within a small leadership group.
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