The global trajectory for plastic waste is staggering. If current trends continue, the world is on track to generate a pile of plastic waste annually by 2050 that is the size of Manhattan and stands taller than one and a half Empire State Buildings. While recycling is often presented as the primary solution, the reality is that the vast majority of this material ends up in landfills or is subjected to more hazardous disposal methods.
A significant portion of this waste is shipped across international borders. Recent analysis reveals that when plastic is exported to lower- and middle-income nations, it often ends up being openly burned—a practice that leads to a sharp rise in toxic air pollution. With approximately 2 billion people worldwide lacking access to municipal waste collection, open burning has become a common, if dangerous, method of waste management.
Did You Know? Between 1992 and 2016, China was the destination for 45% of global plastic waste imports. After China halted these imports in 2018, the flow of waste shifted significantly toward Southeast Asia and Turkey, turning countries like Indonesia into net importers of plastic waste.
The Health and Environmental Toll
The open burning of plastic is a major public health concern. When plastic incinerates, it releases fine particulate matter capable of penetrating deep into the human body, alongside toxic gases including carbon monoxide, styrene gas and hydrogen cyanide. The release of persistent organic pollutants, such as dioxins, poses long-term risks for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and neurological disorders.
The consequences extend beyond the air. Ash from these fires can contaminate soil and groundwater with heavy metals and other toxicants. This creates a cycle of exposure, as evidenced in Sidoarjo, Indonesia, where burning waste to cut fuel costs at factories has resulted in microplastics being found in local food products, such as tofu.
Shifting Trade Policies
Data from Indonesia provides a clear look at the impact of these waste imports. Following China’s 2018 ban, particulate matter air pollution at major Indonesian dump sites increased by an average of 3.3%. Researchers estimate this rise in pollution corresponds to an increased mortality risk from lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections.
In response, several nations have implemented stricter regulations. Indonesia banned plastic waste imports entirely in 2025, and Malaysia has restricted imports to countries that have ratified the Basel Convention—a treaty the United States has not ratified. Meanwhile, the European Union has moved to prohibit the export of plastic waste to non-OECD countries starting in late 2026.
Expert Insight: The shift toward restrictive trade policies suggests that the era of “exporting” the plastic problem is coming to a close. However, these bans only address the movement of waste, not the generation of it. Without a significant increase in domestic recycling capacity—which currently faces severe limitations—or a fundamental reduction in plastic production, nations are likely to struggle with both illegal shipments and the growing accumulation of waste within their own borders.
Looking Ahead
The path forward remains complex. With U.S. Recycling rates estimated at only 5% to 6%, domestic capacity is insufficient to handle current waste volumes. Even with potential improvements in reclamation technology, experts suggest that recycling alone cannot solve the crisis.
Future efforts may rely on a combination of strategies, including harmonized design standards for products and the expansion of “extended producer responsibility” laws. While seven U.S. States have already enacted such legislation to hold producers accountable for packaging waste, the effects of these policies will take time to manifest. As international negotiations for a binding plastic treaty remain stalled, the effectiveness of these local and regional policies will be critical in determining whether the global community can successfully mitigate the environmental and health risks associated with plastic waste.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is plastic waste still being openly burned?
Open burning is largely a result of 2 billion people worldwide having no access to municipal solid waste collection. It occurs both intentionally and unintentionally, such as when organic waste in dump sites spontaneously combusts due to heat.
How does plastic waste affect air quality in recipient countries?
Burning plastic releases toxic pollutants, including fine particles and gases like carbon monoxide and hydrogen cyanide. In Indonesia, the influx of imported plastic waste after 2018 led to a 3.3% average increase in particulate matter pollution at dump sites.
Can the U.S. Solve this by simply recycling more?
Current estimates suggest that even if U.S. And Canadian reclamation facilities reached their maximum potential, the total recycling rate would only rise to 7% to 9%. Experts indicate that decreasing plastic use and adopting packaging reuse systems are necessary alongside recycling efforts.
What changes are you seeing in your own community regarding plastic waste management and reduction?
