Tropical Storm Bertha Forms in Gulf, Forecast to Bring Flooding to Coastline

Storm Status and Projected Path

As of late Monday, July 20, Bertha was nearly stationary, located approximately 140 miles south of Panama City, Florida. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm carried maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It marks the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Arthur, which brought heavy rain to the Southeast last month.

Forecasters expect the storm to begin a slow west-northwestward or westward track over the coming days, moving near or along the northern Gulf Coast. While the exact trajectory remains subject to computer model uncertainty, the potential impacts depend heavily on the system’s strength and speed.

“If the system stays weaker and moves inland sooner, the heaviest rain would spread farther inland across parts of the Southeast. If it strengthens and remains over the Gulf longer, the heaviest rain would stay closer to the coast before gradually shifting west along the Gulf Coast later in the week.”

FOX Forecast Center

Flooding Risks and Regional Alerts

The primary concern for coastal residents is the potential for significant rainfall. The National Hurricane Center estimates that Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Officials warned that this could lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban environments.

Meteorologists also noted that the ground conditions in some areas may exacerbate the flood risk. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva explained that while rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.

A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for a wide area stretching from the Alabama-Florida border to southeastern Louisiana. Additionally, a storm surge watch has been issued for the coastline between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Alabama-Florida border. Residents in these regions have been advised that additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area as the storm progresses, according to AP News reporting.

Energy Industry and Local Preparations

Energy companies operating in the Gulf have begun implementing storm preparedness protocols. Chevron confirmed that it is suspending operations at its Petronius facility and moving employees onshore. The company stated, We are also transporting nonessential personnel from our Tubular Bells and Blind Faith platforms. At our onshore facilities, we are following our storm preparedness procedures and paying close attention to the forecast and track of the system.

Local authorities are also taking precautionary measures. In Escambia County, Florida, emergency management officials have provided sandbags to residents in flood-prone areas. Meanwhile, beaches in Orange Beach, Alabama, displayed red flags on Monday to warn swimmers of high surf and dangerous currents. In Texas, where the storm’s circulation is not expected to reach until Friday, Click2Houston reports that the potential for heavy rain remains a factor for the region, though current projections suggest a marginal flood risk for Southeast Texas.

Seasonal Context and Pacific Activity

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is currently predicted to see below-normal activity, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting 8 to 14 named storms. This outlook is largely attributed to the influence of El Niño, which typically inhibits hurricane development. A standard season, based on 1991–2020 records, usually averages 14 tropical storms.

While Bertha develops in the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are also tracking activity in the Pacific. Hurricane Fausto formed on Monday far from the coast of Mexico. As of Monday night, the storm was located approximately 745 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with sustained winds of 75 mph. Unlike Bertha, Fausto currently poses no direct threat to land, though officials warned that ocean swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents along the Baja California coast.