According to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of the Comisión Nacional del Agua (Conagua), a new zone of low pressure in the Pacific Ocean has reached a 90% probability of cyclonic development within 48 hours and 7 days. If its rapid evolution continues, the system could transform into tropical storm “Odalys,” marking the fifteenth named tropical cyclone of the 2026 hurricane season in the North Pacific basin.
Location and Movement of the Potential Cyclone
The center of the developing weather system is located approximately 485 kilometers south-southwest of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, moving toward the north, as reported by meteorological authorities. High concentrations of moisture and atmospheric instability are driving the system’s anticipated evolution into a tropical cyclone. Because of the system’s proximity to the Mexican coastline, officials from Protección Civil and the SMN have advised maritime navigation and residents in western coastal states to monitor official weather alerts closely.
Rainfall Forecast Across Mexico for Sunday, September 20, 2026
In addition to the potential formation of “Odalys,” weather instability is impacting the country due to low-pressure channels and incoming moisture from both oceans. According to Conagua, very heavy rainfall ranging from 50 to 75 mm is expected in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. Chubascos and strong point rains between 25 and 50 mm are forecast for Nayarit, the State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, Puebla, Veracruz, and Chiapas. Meanwhile, interval showers of 5 to 25 mm are anticipated in Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, and Tabasco. Authorities recommend taking precautions against potential mudslides, water accumulation, and rising river and stream levels.
Extreme Temperatures and Regional Advisories
Despite widespread rainfall, hot to very hot conditions will persist across northern and northwestern Mexico. Maximum temperatures are projected to reach between 40 °C and 45 °C in Sonora, Sinaloa, and Baja California. Highs of 35 °C to 40 °C are expected in Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Campeche, and Yucatán. Conversely, morning minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C will affect mountainous areas in the State of Mexico, Puebla, Tlaxcala, and Veracruz. Officials advise residents in northern regions to avoid prolonged sun exposure.
Did You Know? The potential system “Odalys” represents the fifteenth named tropical cyclone of the 2026 hurricane season in the North Pacific basin, tracked closely by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current development probability for the low-pressure zone?
According to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, the system has a 90% probability of cyclonic development in both 48-hour and 7-day forecasts.
Where is the weather system currently located?
The center of the disturbance is located roughly 485 kilometers south-southwest of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, moving toward the north.
Which states face the heaviest rainfall projections?
Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca face very heavy rainfall accumulations ranging between 50 and 75 mm.
What precautions are local authorities advising residents in coastal regions to take as the system approaches?
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