Potential Yalta-style division of spheres raises European alarm
Global powers might attempt to redraw spheres of influence without regard for smaller states during a potential meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, lrytas.lt reported.
The three leaders could meet on November 18 and 19 in Shenzhen during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Analysts indicate that the practical results of any such gathering will likely remain limited, with the primary outcome potentially being a historic photograph of the three leaders.
That prospective format evokes memories of the February 1945 Yalta Conference, where Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin shaped the post-war order and European territorial divisions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Shenzhen could host a 21st-century redistribution of spheres of influence.
“We can expect a new division of spheres of influence,” Zelenskyy warned, according to lrytas.lt.
Russia demands revision of Europe's security architecture
Apprehension intensified following recent negotiations in Abu Dhabi involving delegations from Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. Moscow’s representatives demanded that any eventual peace agreement include a revision of Europe’s security architecture.
Vladimir Medinsky, who led the Russian delegation, questioned whether European nations need to participate in future negotiations.
“The meeting itself signals to the world which countries are considered significant and whose interests the great powers are willing to discuss among themselves,” Fried told lrytas.lt.
Diverging interests complicate trilateral summit goals
Substantial agreements will prove difficult to reach because the core priorities of Washington, Moscow, and Pekin diverge sharply.
China faces a delicate balancing act regarding its diplomatic posture. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier revealed after a recent meeting with Xi that the Chinese leader expressed displeasure when the possibility of including Ukraine in the trilateral talks was raised.
“Xi Jinping emphasized that the war in Ukraine is a European conflict, so Europeans themselves must be at the negotiating table,” Steinmeier told lrytas.lt, describing the Chinese stance on continental security.
Leaders may agree on narrow pragmatic measures
Experts suggest that instead of a sweeping grand bargain, leaders might agree on narrow, pragmatic measures such as direct crisis communication channels or cooperation in counterterrorism, health protection, and climate change.
Taiwan is monitoring the developments closely as China claims the territory as its own. Analysts caution that if Washington is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian interests for a convenient deal, similar scenarios could eventually affect other American partners.
Questions regarding the Shenzhen summit
When and where might the three leaders meet?
The potential meeting could take place on November 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, China, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, according to lrytas.lt.
What specific security changes has Moscow demanded?
The Russian delegation demanded that any possible peace agreement include a revision of Europe’s security architecture, lrytas.lt reported.
How does China position its nuclear arsenal in potential talks?
Beijing maintains that the United States and Russia must first substantially reduce their much larger nuclear arsenals before China would be ready to discuss its own nuclear stockpiles, as reported by lrytas.lt.