U.S. Gas Prices Near $4 Per Gallon Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure

As the conflict with Iran continues, the average price of gasoline in the United States has neared $4 per gallon. The surge follows the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passageway that handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies.

The Trump administration has implemented several measures to mitigate rising energy costs, including releasing emergency oil reserves, waiving the Jones Act, and considering the temporary use of sanctioned oil. Despite these efforts, officials and energy market experts remain divided on the efficacy of the administration’s response to the supply disruption.

The Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

The Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually closed since the outbreak of hostilities, bringing shipping traffic to a near-halt. According to the International Energy Agency, Gulf countries have cut oil production by 10 million barrels per day due to supply constraints since the conflict began.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has surged 48% since the start of the war, reaching approximately $108 a barrel. Willy Shih, a professor of management at Harvard Business School and energy market expert, noted that the administration’s current measures are attempts to counteract the loss of 20% of the world’s supply from the market.

“The release won’t have much impact at all,” said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy. “It’s kind of like trying to replace a water main with a straw.”

Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Regulatory Shifts

On March 11, President Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The rollout of this oil began this week and is scheduled to continue over 120 days. While the administration aims for a withdrawal rate of 1.4 million barrels per day, Clayton Allen, a practice head at the Eurasia Group, pointed to physical constraints that limit the speed at which this oil can reach the market.

In addition to the SPR release, President Trump ordered a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a 100-year-old law requiring that goods shipped between American ports be carried on U.S.-built, -flagged, and -crewed vessels. A recent analysis from the Center for American Progress estimated that this waiver could reduce gas prices by 3 cents per gallon. Shih described the move as a “drop in the bucket” regarding its influence on broader energy prices.

Administration Outlook and Future Projections

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the administration is working toward the goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as one of the objectives at the end of the conflict. While Wright acknowledged that the strait is not currently safe for shipping, he expressed optimism that energy prices could drop below $3 per gallon by summer once military objectives are met.

“There’s no guarantees in war,” Wright said. “The time frame’s still not entirely clear, but I think that’s certainly a goal of the administration.”

President Trump has engaged in discussions with international leaders to secure the strait, suggesting that countries affected by the supply constraint should contribute ships to the region. While the administration has not publicly named the nations that have committed to this effort, Secretary Wright stated he has been in dialogue with several countries, including Japan, Korea, China, Thailand, and India, regarding the necessity of reopening the waterway.

Economic Context of Fuel Price Increases

The economic strain of the rising prices is felt across the country. Data indicates that gas prices have risen by more than a dollar per gallon in every state since the start of the conflict.

Price Increases by State

| State | Increase per Gallon | Percentage Increase |
| :— | :— | :— |
| Ohio | +$1.648 | +58.6% |
| Utah | +$1.612 | +58.6% |
| Illinois | +$1.612 | +52.8% |
| Michigan | +$1.592 | +53.2% |
| Kentucky | +$1.457 | +55.2% |
| Idaho | +$1.443 | +48.6% |
| Wisconsin | +$1.428 | +52.1% |
| California | +$1.370 | +29.4% |

As the administration continues its military campaign, including recent strikes on Kharg Island—a critical hub for Iranian oil production—White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated that oil and gas prices are expected to drop rapidly once U.S. military objectives are achieved.

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