A recent rightward political shift across Latin America has created new diplomatic openings for Washington, but regional experts warn that conservative leaders are largely attempting to survive the term of US President Donald Trump rather than fully aligning with his administration. Speaking in New York on Tuesday at a meeting of The Shield of the Americas, Trump welcomed a gathering of regional leaders by praising what he called a substantial move to the right in their respective countries.
The Shield of the Americas and Regional Alignment
The Shield of the Americas was established in March by Trump primarily to dismantle drug cartels, though the coalition’s scope has since expanded. During Tuesday’s meeting—which coincided with the United Nations General Assembly—Trump discussed energy reserves, rare earth minerals, and vital trade routes, warning that these assets must not fall into the hands of hostile foreign powers outside the region, an apparent reference to China.
Ten countries in Latin America are currently led by radical-right or very conservative presidents, according to Kees Koonings, a professor of Brazil studies. This group includes Argentina, Chili, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Peru. Trump attributed this continental trend directly to his own backing, noting that he supported several of these leaders ahead of their electoral victories.
Expert Skepticism Over Trump’s Regional Influence
Francisco Monaldi, a Latin America expert at Rice University, disputes the idea that Trump is the primary driver behind the continent’s political shift. Monaldi points out that while South America is largely leaning right—with exceptions like Brazil, Uruguay, and Mexico—this movement is driven by domestic factors within each nation rather than US influence.
“I think most countries are not so much going along with Trump as trying to survive his term,” Monaldi stated. He noted that recent elections were shaped by widespread anti-government sentiment stemming from years of sluggish economic growth and high crime rates, which generated public demand for strict security measures. Monaldi cautioned that working too closely with Trump could actually deter voters from supporting right-wing candidates domestically.
Diplomatic Shifts in Venezuela and Argentina
A prominent example of shifting regional dynamics involves Venezuela. Following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed leadership of the government. Under pressure from Washington, Rodríguez shifted Caracas’s posture toward the US, meeting Trump at the UN this week to discuss strengthening bilateral ties—a conversation Rodríguez described as historical.
Monaldi argues that this apparent diplomatic thaw is largely a tactical maneuver by Caracas to buy time while Trump remains in office. Monaldi notes that Trump's stated goal of dramatically increasing Venezuelan oil production faces logistical hurdles that will take years to resolve, meaning it cannot be achieved during the current presidential term.
Similar complexities define the relationship between Washington and Argentine President Javier Milei, a right-wing populist who is seen as Trump’s most reliable regional ally. According to Monaldi, the two leaders remain far apart on key policy issues, noting that while Trump favors import tariffs, Milei is a vocal proponent of free trade.
The Crucial Brazil Election and China's Economic Footprint
The upcoming presidential election in Brazil on October 4 represents a major test for the balance of power in South America. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the convicted radical-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, is running against incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula recently asserted at the UN that Trump is backing Bolsonaro to help the US colonize Brazil, declaring that “Brazil is nobody’s backyard” in reference to the ‘Donroe-doctrine’.
Recent polling shows both candidates running neck and neck. Koonings emphasized that the Brazilian vote will be decisive for the political weight of the right in South America, adding that the Bolsonaro family appears willing to fully align with Trump. Monaldi observed that if Bolsonaro wins, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum would stand as the only remaining Latin American head of state willing to challenge Trump.
Did you know? In 2024, China served as the primary destination for Brazilian exports, purchasing massive shipments of soybeans, iron ore, and oil. This deep economic entanglement places a clear ceiling on how far South American nations can shift their foreign policy toward Washington.
Trade realities continue to limit US ambitions in the region. Because Beijing remains a crucial commercial partner for multiple major South American economies, regional governments must carefully balance their political engagements with Washington against their economic dependencies on Asia.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Shield of the Americas?
The Shield of the Americas is a cooperative security and economic framework initiated in March by US President Donald Trump, initially formed to target drug cartels before expanding into discussions on energy, trade routes, and rare earth minerals.
Why are right-wing governments gaining ground in Latin America?
According to Rice University expert Francisco Monaldi and Professor Kees Koonings, the political shift is primarily driven by domestic factors, including years of weak economic growth and high crime rates that spurred public demand for strong security measures.
How does China influence South American foreign policy?
China remains the leading export destination for major regional economies like Brazil, limiting how completely local governments can politically align with the United States without risking vital trade relationships.
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