Title: Trump‘s Ukraine Strategy: Peace Within 24 Hours or a Long-Term Game?
Article:
Donald Trump, during his presidential campaign, famously promised to end the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours if elected. Though he hasn’t explicitly repeated this promise since his win, it’s clear that he’s planning some moves to pressure both Ukraine and Russia.
Trump’s Initial Stance
Trump repeatedly vowed throughout his campaign to halt the Ukrainian war within a day. Yet, after his victory, he hasn’t echoed these sentiments. In his first press conference, he described the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, labeling the former as "moving along pretty well" and the latter as "complex".
His nominee for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, suggested a ceasefire as the first step, stating, "We need to stop the fighting. We need to think about how we’re going to deal with the issue of the governance of the Ukraine."
Trump’s Team Assesses the Situation
Trump and his team are only now forming a clear vision of the situation, according to John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Herbst believes that Trump won’t simply withdraw U.S. aid, giving Russia an unfair advantage. Instead, he’ll likely adopt a strategy to pressure both countries.
All Trump’s cabinet picks – including Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, and special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg – understand Russia as a threat, Herbst said. Even Trump’s controversial defense secretary pick, General James "Mad Dog" Mattis, has called Russia a threat.
Leveraging Oil Prices
To pressure Russia, Trump could increase U.S. oil and gas production, driving down global oil prices and hurting Russia’s economy. Herbst also suggests that Trump could promise more arms for Ukraine, unlike the hesitant approach taken by predecessor Joe Biden.
Trump’s Possible Four-Point Plan
Herbst speculates that Trump’s plan might include:
- Giving Russia control of disputed territory (de facto recognition of Russian control).
- Blocking Ukraine’s NATO ambitions for 20 years.
- Creating a demilitarized zone, monitored by European forces.
- Armory Ukraine to defend against future Russian attacks.
A Long Road to Peace
Achieving a lasting peace could take over a year, Herbst estimates. Trump’s initial outreach to Putin might only provoke a response after two to three months. Months of talks could follow, with European peacekeepers potentially deploying by the end of 2018.
To sustain a lasting peace, 100,000 European troops might be required, along with robust U.S. air support, Herbst believes.
An Unpredictable Path
Mark Kaziank, an American political scientist, is more cautious. Trump’s and Putin’s unpredictable nature makes predictions challenging. However, he agrees that Trump won’t abandon Ukraine.
"Trump doesn’t want to be the loser," Kaziank asserts. His hope for the next year? A ceasefire, lest Europe face a major war.
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