Trump‘s Presidency: A New Approach to U.S.-Russia Relations and Ukraine
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump plans to initiate a policy shift that could significantly impact Russia, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst. Trump, from his first day in office, aims to boost American oil production, a move that could drive down global oil prices, directly affecting Russia’s economy, Herbst told Tagesschau.
Herbst believes that the U.S. has sufficient leverage to pressure Russia into negotiating an end to its war against Ukraine. He bases this on the team Trump is forming, all of whom view Russia as a threat. This includes Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor pick Michael Flynn, and Special Envoy for Negotiations on Ukraine Keith Kellogg.
Trump could use two main strategies to exert pressure on Russia. Firstly, by increasing U.S. oil production, he could drive down global oil prices, as Herbst explained, "The Kremlin relies heavily on oil and gas revenues. A drop in the price of oil would significantly weaken Russia’s economy."
Secondly, Trump could enhance military assistance to Ukraine. Herbst suggests that Trump’s administration might provide more weapons to Ukraine than the previous Obama administration did. This could potentially deter further Russian aggression.
However, finding a mutually acceptable solution to end the conflict won’t be easy. Herbst predicts that Kyiv would struggle to accept Russia maintaining control over occupied territories and blocking Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. Meanwhile, Moscow might oppose any attempt to create a demilitarized zone under European military supervision.
Yet, progress in conflict resolution could be on the horizon. Herbst predicts that the European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, widely discussed in recent months, will be deployed by fall 2025. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already confirmed exploring this option with international partners.
Dialog.UA previously reported on Zelensky’s confirmation of discussions around a potential foreign military presence in Ukraine, acting as security guarantees until Ukraine becomes a NATO member.
