Trump‘s Victory: A New Era for Ukraine‘s Battle Against Russia
The future of Ukraine’s fight against Russian forces seems more uncertain than ever, following the surprise victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race. Trump’s pledge to end the conflict in Eastern Europe in just 24 hours has sparked concern in Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, with opposition leader Kira Rudik urging the world to understand "how crucial it is not to end the war at any cost in negotiations with Russia."
However, others in Kyiv hope that Trump will quickly realize that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to halt his invasion and that the incoming U.S. president will then increase American support for Ukraine beyond what the previous Biden administration was willing to commit.
Meanwhile, despite the political uncertainties, Ukraine faces pressing military and humanitarian challenges.
Military Struggles and Frontline Setbacks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that his country’s armed forces currently lack the strength to retake almost 20% of Ukraine’s territory occupied by Russia in the south and east. This situation can be partly attributed to the West’s cautious approach to supporting Ukraine, focusing more on rhetoric than on substantial military aid. The use of Western-supplied missiles deep into Russian territory is one example of the more aggressive stance taken in recent months, but Zelensky continues to call for more weapons, ammunition, and air defense systems, stressing the urgent need for their arrival.
The Ukrainian military also grapples with internal issues, such as mobilization struggles, retention and rotation difficulties, and communication breakdowns between top brass and ground forces.
In essence, Ukraine needs more recruits, better training for new soldiers, and more realistic expectations about their capabilities from the military leadership in Kyiv. Sources suggest that Ukraine must recruit 160,000 new soldiers to bring its brigades up to 85% strength, according to Emil Castehlmi, who tracks the war in Ukraine for Black Bird Group. Reports indicate that the U.S. has tried to convince Zelensky to lower the enlistment age from 25 to 18, but the Ukrainian president has so far resisted this idea.
However, Castehlmi argues that the problem is more complex. The challenging frontline conditions, with soldiers fighting for years without proper rotation or sufficient equipment, combined with the slow but steady advance of Russian forces, particularly in eastern Ukraine, serve as a significant deterrent to recruiting new soldiers. Additionally, around 20% of Ukraine’s 4.3 million European-based refugees are men of combat age, and military conscription teams are resorting to drastic measures, such as raiding bars and restaurants, to find eligible recruits. Verkhovna Rada Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk recently admitted that the military shortcomings had reached a "critical point."
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The humanitarian situation in Ukraine remains dire, according to Elizabeth Haslund, senior communication officer for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Ukraine. The advancing frontline and the ongoing, coordinated Russian air strikes across the country pose major concerns.
Over 3.5 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced, with the most vulnerable living in 350 collective centers across the country. As the conflict drags on, the challenges faced by internally displaced persons (IDPs) can become even more entrenched. "The longer you’re internally displaced, the more severe and challenging the needs and vulnerabilities can become," Haslund warns.
With more than one-third of the country in urgent need of assistance, and another 4.3 million Ukrainians living as refugees abroad, funding for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine continues to decrease each year. In 2022, 90% of the required funds were raised in the first three months of the invasion, but this dropped to 75% in 2023 and only 61% in 2024.
Haslund emphasizes the importance of Ukraine not being forgotten amidst other global crises, stating, "It’s crucial that Ukraine isn’t left behind because the situation is still there, and the humanitarian needs will remain in 2025."
Children in Ukraine also face severe hardships. Nearly half of the students enrolled in Ukrainian schools are absent due to safety concerns, with around one million children having no access to any form of education due to the ongoing conflict. Despite efforts to create underground makeshift classrooms, nearly 4,000 educational facilities have been damaged or destroyed since Russia’s invasion, and hundreds of thousands of children remain in Russian custody, accused of genocide by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
As the conflict enters its third year, the challenge for aid organizations is to sustain a response while the country continues to be bombarded, with limited and decreasing resources. "People want to rebuild their communities. We have no patience to support those efforts," Haslund notes. "We can’t wait for peace to start the recovery and reconstruction."
