Title: Trump‘s Russia ‘getting what it deserves,’ Ukraine says, after launching …”>Ukraine Gambit: A Risky Path to Peace or a New Cold War?
In his campaign, newly elected President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end wars rather than start new ones. However, the conflicts in the Middle East are complex, involving many players, unlike the situation in Ukraine. If Trump is serious about keeping his promises, he needs to prioritize Ukraine first.
As Steven Boone writes in a 19fortyfive article, Professor Boaz Ganor of Israel’s Technion warns that continuing the current policy of stringent economic sanctions against Russia and sustained military aid to Ukraine is unsustainable. Russia has found ways to bypass sanctions through deals with countries like China and India, and President Putin shows no signs of backing down despite heavy losses. Moreover, Russia is expanding its military presence in Africa, mirroring China’s growing influence in the continent.
Trump’s only alternative seems to be a continued policy of sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, a path that appears unlikely to deter Russia. In fact, the scenario of a desperate Russia using its vast nuclear arsenal is a real possibility, potentially igniting World War III.
Trump, during his campaign, also promised to halt the flow of weapons to Ukraine. He has at least two compelling reasons to keep this promise: to show his voters that he’s responsible with their tax dollars and to prod NATO allies into increasing their defense spending and sharing the burden with the U.S.
However, halting military aid could embolden Russia to press its advantage. A trillion-dollar question: Would Trump be willing to make concessions in Ukraine to strengthen America’s hand elsewhere? Here’s a radical scenario: Trump offers Putin recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for Russia scaling back its ties with China, North Korea, and Iran.
Such a deal could have far-reaching implications:
- Constraints on China: By strengthening Russia’s ties to the West, the U.S. could hamper China’s "Belt and Road" initiative, preserve Taiwan’s independence, and curb Beijing’s growing influence in Africa.
- Pressure on North Korea: A realigned Russia could put pressure on Pyongyang, increasing the likelihood of internal unrest and eventual unification with South Korea.
- Iraq’s nuclear aspirations: A weakened Iran, isolated by Russia and China, would have less leverage in the Middle East, potentially derailing its nuclear ambitions.
Such a deal, however, raises serious ethical and legal questions. Turning a blind eye to Russian aggression sets a dangerous precedent and violates international law. Moreover, it goes against Ukraine’s sovereignty and the wishes of its people, who would likely resist any deal that cedes territory to Russia.
In conclusion, Trump faces a daunting task in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of Ukraine. Any move he makes will have far-reaching consequences, requiring careful consideration of strategic and ethical implications. The world awaits his next move with bated breath.
