The Rise of the Early NFL Declaration: A New Quarterback Trend?
Ty Simpson’s decision to enter the 2026 NFL Draft after just 15 career college starts isn’t an anomaly; it’s a potential harbinger of a shifting landscape in college football and the NFL. Increasingly, quarterbacks with limited traditional experience are betting on their raw talent and NFL readiness, challenging the long-held belief that years of collegiate seasoning are essential for success. This trend is fueled by a confluence of factors, from the evolving demands of the modern NFL to the financial incentives driving player decisions.
The Shrinking Pool of Experienced Quarterbacks
The 2025 NFL Draft saw Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart selected early, despite a growing trend of quarterbacks returning to college for extra years. This created a surprisingly shallow 2026 quarterback class, prompting players like Simpson to reassess their options. Historically, NFL teams prioritized quarterbacks with 30+ starts, believing the accumulated reps were crucial. However, the league is adapting. The emphasis on processing speed, arm talent, and mental acuity is increasing, potentially devaluing sheer volume of starts.
Data from the past decade supports this shift. While the average first-round quarterback since 2010 boasts over 30 starts, exceptions like Mitch Trubisky, Anthony Richardson, and even Kyler Murray demonstrate that raw potential can outweigh experience. The key difference now is the context: a thinner draft class elevates the value of any promising quarterback, even those with less on-field experience.
What NFL Teams Are Looking For Now
The modern NFL prioritizes quarterbacks who can quickly process information, make accurate throws under pressure, and demonstrate leadership qualities. These attributes aren’t solely developed through game experience. Elite quarterback coaching at the college level, combined with rigorous film study and mental preparation, can accelerate a player’s development.
Ty Simpson, for example, is lauded for his processing ability and accuracy on short and intermediate throws – skills that translate well to the NFL. His struggles with deep throws, potentially exacerbated by a recent injury, are a concern, but NFL teams are adept at identifying and addressing such weaknesses.
Did you know? The average NFL quarterback’s career length is just under 5 years. This shorter lifespan incentivizes teams to take calculated risks on high-potential players, even if they lack extensive college experience.
The NIL Factor and the Changing College Landscape
Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals have dramatically altered the college football landscape. While lucrative NIL opportunities can incentivize players to stay in school, the potential earnings of an NFL contract are exponentially higher. As colleague Pete Prisco of CBS Sports points out, a top-five NFL draft pick can secure a contract worth upwards of $45 million, dwarfing even the most generous NIL packages.
This financial disparity is driving more quarterbacks to prioritize the NFL draft, even if it means sacrificing another year of college development. The risk of injury also plays a role; a career-altering injury in college can jeopardize a player’s NFL prospects and future earning potential.
The Importance of Landing Spot
A quarterback’s success in the NFL isn’t solely determined by talent and experience; it’s heavily influenced by the team environment. Players like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence demonstrate that even highly touted prospects can struggle in dysfunctional organizations.
Simpson’s ideal landing spot would be a team with a strong coaching staff, a stable organization, and a veteran quarterback who can provide mentorship. A situation similar to Patrick Mahomes learning from Alex Smith in Kansas City would be optimal. Conversely, landing with a team in rebuilding mode, lacking a clear vision, or with a history of quarterback instability could hinder his development.
Pro Tip: Don’t Overlook the Mental Game
NFL teams are increasingly focusing on a quarterback’s mental fortitude, resilience, and ability to handle pressure. These qualities are often more important than physical attributes. Look for quarterbacks who demonstrate strong leadership skills, a positive attitude, and a willingness to learn.
FAQ: The Early NFL Declaration Trend
Q: Is it risky for a quarterback to enter the NFL Draft with limited college experience?
A: Yes, it’s a calculated risk. However, the potential rewards – a lucrative NFL contract and a chance to play at the highest level – can outweigh the risks, especially in a draft class lacking depth at the position.
Q: What are NFL teams looking for in quarterbacks beyond experience?
A: Processing speed, arm talent, accuracy, leadership, and mental toughness are all highly valued attributes.
Q: How does NIL impact this trend?
A: While NIL deals can incentivize players to stay in college, the potential earnings of an NFL contract are significantly higher, driving many quarterbacks to declare early.
Q: What’s the ideal landing spot for a quarterback with limited experience?
A: A team with a strong coaching staff, a stable organization, and a veteran quarterback who can provide mentorship.
The future of the quarterback position in the NFL is evolving. The traditional emphasis on college experience is waning, replaced by a more nuanced evaluation of talent, potential, and fit. Players like Ty Simpson are leading the charge, challenging the status quo and paving the way for a new generation of NFL quarterbacks.
Want to learn more about the 2026 NFL Draft prospects? Explore our comprehensive draft coverage here.
