The countdown has begun. Donald Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20, with the intention of quickly resolving the future of Ukraine, and his European partners are preparing against time for challenging and uncertain times ahead. Summits are multiplying, along with meetings between ministers and contacts to prepare for possible negotiations and scenarios in anticipation of a potential resolution to Russia’s war at Europe’s doorstep. The question on everyone’s mind, evident in recent meetings of foreign ministers of major EU countries in Berlin and between the Polish prime minister and French president in Warsaw, is: what should be done?
The response, according to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, is a double guarantee: first, “no peace will be made without Ukraine,” and second, Ukraine will need “long-term security guarantees.” As Europe faces a potentially decisive winter for Ukraine, all efforts are being accelerated in the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration. Trump has previously stated his intention to resolve the war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 24 hours, and has threatened to leave NATO allies unprotected if they do not increase their defense spending. French President Emmanuel Macron, weakened at home amidst political crisis, recently met with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, and subsequently traveled to Warsaw to meet with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Additionally, new formats have emerged, such as the one held in the Villa Borsig in Berlin, which brought together the foreign ministers of the main European Union countries. The group, which includes Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, is working to provide Ukraine with increased military, economic, and financial aid, as well as long-term security guarantees.
In their gatherings, diplomats and leaders are discussing measures to reinforce Ukraine militarily and provide it with potential guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Zelensky has suggested that joining NATO would be a safeguard for Ukraine, but the US and Germany are reluctant to formally invite Ukraine to join the alliance. The possibility of sending a 40,000-strong European peacekeeping force has been floated, reminiscent of Macron’s February proposal to send military instructors. While Baerbock has expressed openness to this idea, Scholz and Merz do not consider it timely. Instead, the priority is to secure predictable and sustainable aid for Ukraine. Trump’s return to office is explaining the intense diplomatic activity and driving plans for post-war scenario preparation and the creation of a 500 billion euro European defense fund. In Europe, preparations for January 20 and what comes next have already begun.
Title: Europa Prepares Reverse-Scenario Planning for Ukraine Ahead of Trump’s Return
Introduction
As the U.S. presidential transition unfolds, Europe is diligently preparing for various scenarios, ranging from renewed pressure on Ukraine to reevaluate its Western integration path, to potential shifts in American foreign policy under a second Trump administration. This strategic planning exercise is being conducted in reverse, starting from a range of possible outcomes and working backward to identify prerequisites and actions for each scenario.
Scenario 1: Renewed U.S. Pressure on Ukraine’s Western Integration
One of the scenarios under consideration in European capitals is an increase in U.S. pressure on Ukraine to renegotiate terms of its association agreement with the European Union or to delay reforms aimed at fighting corruption and strengthening democratic institutions. This scenario is based on President Trump’s past criticism of U.S. involvement in Eastern Europe and his tilt towards rapprochement with Russia.
Reverse planning steps:
- Strengthen EU-Ukraine cooperation: The EU can intensify its support for Ukraine’s reform agenda, providing technical assistance and financial aid to prop up democracy and market reforms. This could help insulate Ukraine from external pressures.
- Solidify NATO commitment: NATO allies can reassure Ukraine of their continued support, potentially through enhanced cooperation projects, military exercises, or even diplomatic recognition of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
- Engage with the U.S.: European leaders can maintain open lines of communication with the U.S. administration to explain the strategic importance of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration for regional stability and security.
Scenario 2: U.S.-Russia Détente
Another scenario under consideration is a tectonic shift in U.S. policy towards Russia, favoring improved relations at the expense of European security interests. This would leave Ukraine vulnerable to further aggression and pressure from Moscow.
Reverse planning steps:
- Elevate Ukraine’s strategic importance: European leaders can emphasize Ukraine’s role as a bulwark against Russian expansionism, justifying a more robust defense and security assistance posture.
- Implement a differentiated approach to Russia: Europe can push for targeted sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, carving out Ukraine-specific measures that remain in place regardless of broader EU-Russia relations.
- Strengthen Eastern Flank: NATO can reinforce its presence in Eastern Europe, potentially through the deployment of additional forces or the enhancement of existing military exercises.
Conclusion
Facing an uncertain future in transatlantic relations, Europe is preparing for various scenarios related to Ukraine. By engaging in reverse-scenario planning, European leaders aim to remain one step ahead of potential developments in U.S. policy, ensuring that Ukraine’s strategic interests remain protected and that European security cohesion is maintained. As the new U.S. administration takes office, Europe will stand ready to navigate whatever challenges and opportunities arise in its partnership with Ukraine and its approach to Russia.
