Roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk because of new United States tariffs on Canadian goods, according to an analysis conducted by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe using Statistics Canada input-output numbers. Tombe’s analysis estimates that approximately 52,000 jobs are directly at risk, while indirect effects on Canadian suppliers and service providers could put another 35,000 jobs at risk if the measures remain in place.
Canadian Jobs Face Severe Risks as U.S. Tariffs Threaten Trade
The proposed 50 percent tariffs on a range of Canadian products do not feature exemptions for goods compliant with the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), setting them apart from most other duties implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to La Presse. Additionally, a new wave of U.S. tariffs under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act threatens to affect $20 billion US in imported Canadian goods, ranging from electronics and furniture to orchids, according to CBC.
Provincial Disparities and Regional Economic Impacts
While British Columbia and Quebec face heavy export exposure—with 13.7 percent and 10.8 percent of their respective exports to the U.S. affected—Western provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan are largely spared because the U.S. does not apply duties to energy and potash exports. Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers have also diverged from their counterparts by declining to use energy as a bargaining lever and re-establishing retail sales of American alcoholic products.
In Quebec, former senior diplomat Louise Blais, named as an emissary for the CUSMA review, warned that the measures target major employers in smaller towns across the textile, cement, flooring, and furniture sectors. Some manufacturing facilities are already considering closures as orders drop off.
| Province | Estimated Affected Exports to U.S. |
|---|---|
| British Columbia | 13.7% |
| Quebec | 10.8% |
| Ontario | 9.0% |
| Saskatchewan and Alberta | ~1.0% |
Uncertainty Strains Cross-Border Businesses and Workers
For individual businesses on both sides of the border, the trade tensions have created immediate operational hurdles. Guann Chen, a third-generation orchid grower in St. Catharines, Ontario, noted that nearly half of his greenhouse production serves the U.S. market, making the levy an existential threat. Orchids take years to grow, so you can’t just, overnight, switch suppliers,
Chen said, adding that the policy lacks forethought.
Meanwhile, in Woodbridge, Ontario, Lind Furniture has seen cross-border trade affected as middle- and small-scale U.S. retailers pause orders. General manager Michael Saifer noted that component prices for steel fasteners and hardwoods have already risen, forcing the company to furlough staff and drop a shift. It’s the uncertainty that’s killing us,
Saifer said.
As Prime Minister Mark Carney promised government aid for businesses, labor groups are pressing Ottawa to step up support for affected workers. Bea Bruske of the Canadian Labour Congress called for extending and increasing employment insurance, expanding work-sharing opportunities to keep workers connected to workplaces with reduced hours, and implementing wage subsidies.