Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a direct warning from United Arab Emirates Emir Mohammed bin Zayed in late September 2023 regarding an impending major attack by Hamas, according to an investigative report published by Haaretz and detailed by Italian outlets. The report, which draws from a new book by journalist Shlomi Eldar, states that the Emirati leader warned Netanyahu during a 45-minute phone call that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a “earthquake” against Israel. Netanyahu’s office has dismissed the allegation as a “total lie.”
The Secret Negotiations and the ‘Hudna’ Proposal
According to the investigative reconstruction, the chain of events began during secret negotiations in September 2023. The Israeli government was utilizing a Palestinian intermediary nicknamed “Black Eyes”—a Fatah official fluent in Hebrew with ties to both Hamas and the Shin Bet—to broker a long-term truce, or hudna, with Hamas. The proposed agreement included lifting the blockade on Gaza, establishing a northern industrial zone, increasing Palestinian work permits, and supplying natural gas to the Strip. In exchange, Hamas was expected to release two living Israeli civilians and the bodies of two dead soldiers held in Gaza for years, in return for 30 Palestinian prisoners, including 20 serving life sentences.
Breakdown of Talks and the ‘Earthquake’ Warning
Negotiations stalled in August 2023 because Netanyahu repeatedly delayed convening the ministerial committee needed to approve the prisoner releases. By early September, according to a Shin Bet source cited by Haaretz, Sinwar vanished from talks and instructed the intermediary to warn Israel that he would trigger an “earthquake”—rendered as zilzal in Arabic—if the process stalled. The intermediary relayed the threat to Mohammed bin Zayed through a Palestinian advisor to the Abu Dhabi emir. On September 15, 2023, that advisor passed the warning to the Shin Bet, whose chief subsequently briefed Netanyahu and convened a September 17 security meeting where an operation to eliminate Sinwar was discussed but postponed.
Diverging Warnings and Intelligence Failures
Around the same time, Egyptian Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel also warned Netanyahu that Hamas was preparing unusual actions, as previously reported by Yediot Ahronot. Despite these alerts, intelligence officials did not pinpoint that the threatened “earthquake” would originate from within Gaza rather than the West Bank. Furthermore, Haaretz reported that the Shin Bet pursued a mistaken assessment that Hamas was primarily focused on locating Elisabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli researcher kidnapped in Iraq six months prior.
Official Denials and Counter-Claims
The Prime Minister’s Office has firmly denied that any such phone call took place between Netanyahu and the Emirati leader in late September 2023. Additionally, the former heads of the Shin Bet and the Mossad told Haaretz that they were never informed of any warning originating from bin Zayed. The Emirati presidency has declined to comment on the investigative findings.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who allegedly warned Benjamin Netanyahu about the October 7 attack? According to the Haaretz investigation, UAE Emir Mohammed bin Zayed made the warning during a phone call in late September 2023.
- What was Netanyahu’s response to the allegations? Netanyahu’s office rejected the claims entirely, labeling the report a “total lie” and denying that the phone call occurred.
- What specific term was used to describe the impending threat? Sources cited in the investigation stated that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar used the term “earthquake” or zilzal to describe the retaliation if truce talks failed.
What are your thoughts on these investigative disclosures? Share your perspective in the comments below or explore our archives for more in-depth reporting on Middle Eastern geopolitics.
