Ten years after the referendum that altered the nation’s trajectory, public sentiment in the United Kingdom is shifting toward a potential return to the European Union. While the 2016 vote was framed as a triumphant exit, recent data indicates a growing belief that the decision was a mistake, prompting Prime Minister Andy Burnham to announce a review of future relations with Europe, including the possibility of full membership.
The shift is reflected in several polls. A large-scale survey by The Messina Group (TMG), cited by The Guardian, found that 49% of voters support rejoining the EU, while 28.5% oppose it. The poll, conducted between September 12 and 24 among 11,461 people, shows that 25.9% want an immediate return and 22.9% believe it should happen within three years. Another 8.4% suggest a timeframe within the next decade, while 23% do not want closer ties with Brussels. A government-commissioned study found that 50% of Britons wish to return to the Union, while 28% are against it and 22% are undecided.
The Path to Brexit
The current push for re-engagement follows a decade of separation that began on June 23, 2016, when 51.9% of voters opted to leave the EU. Following this, London triggered Article 50 of the EU Treaty on March 29, 2017. After various political battles and changes in leadership, the UK officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, eventually exiting the single market and customs union by the end of that year. This move was based on a promise to regain control over borders, immigration, trade policy, and legislation.
Burnham Targets EU Return to Boost GDP
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stated that Brexit has caused more harm than good
, noting that the country has drifted from its most natural trading partner. He told the BBC that he wants to see the UK back in the EU within his lifetime. This separation resulted in a decline in exports to the EU, new customs and regulatory bureaucracy, and movement restrictions for citizens. According to an analysis by the “UK in a Changing Europe” institute, returning to the EU could increase the country’s GDP by between three and five percent.
However, the prospect of returning creates tension within the governing Labour Party. Some ministers and MPs from pro-Brexit regions warn that reopening the debate could revive old political divisions. One unnamed cabinet member told The Guardian that while Andy is right to question future relations because promises were not kept, he must act cautiously to avoid reigniting division. A government representative noted that while trade and security cooperation have become more vital, it remains unclear if there is sufficient public desire for a major change.
Public Perception of the Exit
Polls indicate a stark divide in how the exit is viewed. In the TMG survey, 52.4% of respondents believe the UK made a mistake by leaving, while 29.7% say the departure was correct and 17.9% have no opinion. When asked if Brexit was a success, 12.2% said yes, while 54.9% called it a failure. Other data shows 52% of respondents view the decision as a mistake, compared to 30% who believe the move, decided in 2016 and finalized in 2020, was right.
Alternative Models for Engagement
Public desire for closer ties does not always equate to a desire for full membership. Other preferred scenarios from the TMG survey include:
- Maintaining current relations but removing as many trade barriers as possible (48.2%).
- Joining a customs union (47.1%).
- Associate membership (45.5%).
- Membership in the single market (45.1%).
Only 27.9% of TMG respondents want the UK to move further away from the EU. Another possibility is the “Swiss model,” where a country remains outside the EU but maintains access to the single electricity market and various research and educational programs in exchange for allowing the free movement of people.
Obstacles to a “New Wedding”
A return to the EU would likely require a new referendum and years of negotiations. It would also necessitate the restoration of the right to free movement, which would allow EU citizens to live and work in the UK and vice versa. Brussels would likely require guarantees that the UK would not decide to leave again. Member states are expected to be welcoming but firm regarding a UK application, and the UK might return without its previous privileges.
While some data suggests the Labour Party could improve its election results by promising a new referendum, it remains unknown how the European Union would react to such a proposal or exactly how a political “U-turn” would be implemented.
Related reading