The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) identifies respiratory infections with pandemic potential as the most significant threat to UK health security. In its inaugural Health Security Risk Assessment (HSRA), the agency warns that emerging infections and antimicrobial resistance will shape the nation’s health risks over the next five years.
What are the primary health threats facing the UK?
The UKHSA report categorises health security risks into seven distinct themes. These include respiratory, gastrointestinal, vector-borne, environmental, contact, bloodborne and sexually transmitted, and combined events. While respiratory threats carry the highest potential impact, the agency notes that antimicrobial resistance remains a critical driver of how all these risks will manifest.
This new assessment fills a specific gap in national planning. While the Cabinet Office maintains the National Risk Register, the HSRA provides a more granular view of infectious diseases and environmental hazards. It is the first time the agency has published an overarching assessment that compares and contrasts the various threats within its specific remit.
Professor Steven Riley, Chief Data Officer at the UKHSA, stated that the report is designed to support partners across government and health services. He noted that these complex threats often disproportionately impact the most vulnerable groups in society, making resilience planning vital.
The UKHSA uses “reasonable worst-case scenarios” rather than predictions. These scenarios represent the worst plausible way a risk could manifest, rather than what is most likely to happen.
How could a new influenza strain impact the UK?
The report details a specific scenario involving a new strain of influenza arriving in the UK. In this worst-case model, the virus arrives in multiple waves over a two-year period. The agency estimates that such an outbreak could lead to symptomatic infections in over half of the UK population.
The healthcare implications would be severe. According to the HSRA, 4% of those infected would require hospital care. Much like the COVID-19 pandemic, this scenario suggests substantial pressure on the NHS as healthcare workers become ill or are diverted to manage the outbreak response.
Comparing pandemic risks
While the influenza scenario focuses on infection rates, other scenarios in the report address different pathways of vulnerability. For instance, the agency also examines the risks posed by declining childhood immunisation coverage and extreme heat events, both of which have been witnessed in recent years.
Why is climate change increasing disease risks in Britain?
Changing weather patterns in Europe may lead to the arrival of new disease vectors in the UK. The HSRA warns that warmer-than-expected summers in continental Europe could allow the Aedes albopictus mosquito to become established in London and south coast ports.
If these mosquitoes become established, the UK could see its first locally acquired cases of Dengue fever. The report indicates that some of these cases would likely require hospitalisation, marking a shift in the types of infectious diseases the UK must manage.
How does the UKHSA assess future health risks?
To ensure rigour, the UKHSA evaluates every risk based on two primary metrics: likelihood and potential impact. They assess how these events would affect healthcare systems, the national economy, and wider society. For every identified risk, the agency provides a detailed response and mitigation plan.
This systematic approach allows the agency to move beyond reactive measures. By identifying the “worst plausible manifestation” of a threat, the UKHSA aims to enhance preparedness measures before an emergency occurs.
“Are these scenarios meant to cause alarm?”
No. The UKHSA clarifies that these are not predictions of what will happen, but tools used to test the resilience of our current health infrastructure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the UKHSA Health Security Risk Assessment?
It is a new report that characterises the most significant health security risks facing the UK over the next five years, including infectious diseases and environmental hazards.
What is the biggest health threat identified?
Respiratory infections with pandemic potential are considered the greatest risk due to their high potential impact and likelihood.
How does the HSRA differ from the National Risk Register?
The HSRA complements the National Risk Register by providing a more detailed, systematic framework specifically focused on the health-related threats managed by the UKHSA.
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