Ukraine Conflict: A Standoff with Shifting Sands
Four years into the large-scale Russian invasion, the war in Ukraine remains far from a definitive conclusion. While Russia currently maintains a favorable position, the conflict is evolving into a grueling, incremental struggle, according to Dimitri Minic, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The situation is characterized by escalating losses for both sides and a reshaping of the geopolitical landscape.
The Evolving Balance of Power
Currently, Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, a figure largely established during the initial phase of the war in 2022. Yet, territorial gains in 2024 and 2025 have been minimal, amounting to roughly 1% – a pattern Minic describes as “ultra-incremental and ultra-meurtrier” (ultra-incremental and ultra-deadly). Despite this slow progress, Russia appears capable of replenishing its losses, though those losses are increasing year over year.
This suggests a war of attrition, where sustained resourcefulness and manpower become critical. Russia’s ability to continue compensating for losses will be a key determinant of the conflict’s trajectory. The use of defensive structures, such as the “dragon’s teeth” seen along the Zaporijia-Pavlohrad route, highlights Ukraine’s efforts to fortify its positions and slow Russian advances.
Russia’s Diminished Global Influence
The war in Ukraine has had a broader impact, leading to a decline in Russia’s international standing. Minic points out that Russia has demonstrated an inability to effectively support its allies, including Venezuela, Syria, and Iran. This perceived weakness extends to its capacity to counter the actions of the United States under the current administration.
The recent actions of Donald Trump – including a higher volume of military strikes compared to his predecessor and the creation of the “Board of Peace” as an alternative to the United Nations – present a challenge to Russia. Moscow, historically critical of American interventionism and unilateralism, finds itself unable to effectively respond to these developments.
Strategic and Cultural Considerations
Dimitri Minic’s research focuses on Russian strategic thinking and military culture. His work, including his book Pensée et culture stratégiques russes, explores the underlying perceptions and motivations driving Russian foreign policy. Understanding these factors is crucial for analyzing the conflict in Ukraine and anticipating future developments.
Minic’s analysis suggests that the invasion should be understood within the context of how Russian elites perceive their strategic environment, believing they were pushed to this extreme by the West.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current territorial control in Ukraine?
Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, most of which was seized during the initial 2022 invasion.
Has Russia been making significant territorial gains recently?
Territorial gains by Russia in 2024 and 2025 have been minimal, around 1% of Ukrainian territory.
How has the war affected Russia’s international standing?
The war has led to a decline in Russia’s global influence and its ability to support its allies.
Who is Dimitri Minic?
Dimitri Minic is a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and author of Pensée et culture stratégiques russes.
Explore further: Learn more about Dimitri Minic and his research at Ifri.
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