Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will provide an immediate breakthrough for energy markets, but the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that fragile economies face long-term risks to food and fuel costs. While energy prices may stabilize quickly, disrupted transport and food supply chains require more time to recover from ongoing maritime instability.
How many ships are currently traversing the Strait of Hormuz?
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below historical norms. According to data from Kepler, a company specializing in global commodity flow analysis, 40 ships crossed the strait this past Monday. This volume is considerably lower than the daily average recorded before the conflict with Iran began in February.
The data also reveals a pattern of irregular movement among commercial vessels. Of the 40 ships tracked by Kepler:
- 16 vessels followed the Iranian route through the strait.
- 12 vessels either disabled their tracking devices or traveled via “unknown” routes.
This lack of transparency and reduced traffic highlights the continued volatility in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.
Why are food and transport costs expected to remain high?
UNCTAD reports that food and transport systems will likely experience a much slower recovery than energy markets. While a reopening of the strait could trigger an immediate drop in oil prices, supply chains for food and shipping require more time to reorganize after more than 100 days of severe disruption.
The organization has identified 61 fragile economies that are particularly vulnerable to these shocks. These nations face rising costs for both imported oil and essential grains. Two specific examples include:
Cape Verde
This nation relies heavily on imported fuel. UNCTAD notes that the country has already seen significant increases in the costs of electricity, transport, and food—price hikes that may persist even if energy markets stabilize.
Yemen
Due to an already fragile economic structure, Yemen remains highly susceptible to fluctuations in grain prices and the rising costs of maritime transport.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the global economy, with approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil trade passing through this single waterway.
What military measures are being deployed for maritime security?
In response to the ongoing instability, international powers are increasing their naval presence to protect shipping lanes. French military spokesperson Colonel Guillaume Verny announced on Tuesday that France is deploying the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Gulf of Aden.
The deployment is intended to prepare for potential security operations within the Strait of Hormuz. Verny stated that allied nations have joined French air and naval forces near the Gulf of Aden to ensure readiness and coordinate military efforts in the region.
South Korea is also monitoring the situation closely. South Korean leader Lee Jae-myung reported that almost all South Korean vessels have successfully exited the strait, with only two ships remaining in the area.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which economies are most at risk from the Hormuz disruptions?
UNCTAD has identified 61 fragile economies at risk, specifically those heavily dependent on imported grain and oil, such as Yemen and Cape Verde.
How does the recovery of food prices differ from energy prices?
Energy markets tend to react immediately to supply changes, but food and transport sectors require longer periods to reorganize complex, disrupted supply chains.
What is the role of the Charles de Gaulle in this conflict?
The French aircraft carrier has been deployed to the Gulf of Aden to ensure military readiness and support potential security operations to protect maritime navigation.
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