The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 43.8 percent of the vote in the regional state election in Saxony-Anhalt. This outcome marks a substantial rise from the 23 percent the party won during the previous state election in 2021. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, dropped from 37.1 percent in 2021 to 17.2 percent, marking a steep decline.
Moscow Welcomes the Saxony-Anhalt Election Outcome
Russian officials quickly praised the outcome of the German regional vote. Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s special envoy and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), celebrated the AfD victory in a post on X. Dmitriev called the result a historic win that exposes the arrogance, shortsightedness, warmongering, incompetence, and hypocrisy of Germany’s governing coalition. He also directed remarks at Chancellor Merz, stating that Germans have spoken and that the country has awakened. Dmitriev has also been central in the talks surrounding the war in Ukraine.
AfD Proposes Reversing German Policy on Russia
The AfD has taken to call for a better relationship between Germany and Russia. The party has repeatedly demanded an end to the German support for Ukraine. They also want to restore the energy agreements with Moscow that supplied Germany with oil and gas prior to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when supplies were abruptly shut down. Additional proposals from the party include more Russian language instruction in schools and restoring economic and cultural connections with Russia. These positions stand in direct contrast to the policies of the Merz administration, which has supported Ukraine through the war and increased defense spending as a result of what the government describes as the Russian threat.
https://x.com/kadmitriev/status/2096686985192566820
Uncertainty Surrounds Government Formation and Coalitions
Despite capturing the largest share of the vote, it is still unclear if they get power in Saxony-Anhalt. The party finished with 43.8 percent of the vote, leaving them three mandates short of a clear majority in the assembly. Major parties have rejected forming a government together with AfD, having entered a so-called “firewall” agreement: A consensus among the major parties not to cooperate with AfD after the party was elected to the Bundestag in Berlin in 2017. Because of this, the party in practice needs enough mandates to be able to rule alone if they are to take over government power. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD leader in Saxony-Anhalt, raised the prospect of a new election even before all ballots were counted. Meanwhile, the far-left party BSW could also sit with the key, with a BSW candidate telling the broadcaster ARD that she “can be willing to cooperate with AfD in certain areas”.
Pro Tip: When analyzing European regional elections, monitor local coalition agreements and established cordon sanitaire policies (“firewalls”), as these mechanisms often dictate whether leading protest parties can translate vote shares into executive power.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of the vote did the AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt?
The AfD won 43.8 percent of the vote in the state election, up from 23 percent in 2021.
How did Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party perform in the election?
The CDU dropped from 37.1 percent in the 2021 election down to 17.2 percent.
Will the AfD form the next government in Saxony-Anhalt?
It remains unclear whether they get the power. While the AfD became the clear winner, they fell three mandates short of a majority, and other parties have rejected forming a government together with AfD through a firewall agreement.
What is the AfD’s stance on Russia?
The AfD has called for a better relationship between Germany and Russia, an end to the German support for Ukraine, and a resumption of the energy agreements with Moscow.
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