The World in Flux: 2024 as the Year of Transformation
The past year was another chapter in the rapidly changing global order, marked by growing uncertainty and escalating risks, both locally and globally. While it was not the most surprising or bloody year in recent history, 2024 offered clearer glimpses into the defining characteristics of this new era, one where significant changes breed unpredictability.
These changes are not only overdue but also overripe, with the situation in both individual nations and the international system at large being increasingly precarious. The old world order, a blend of post-World War II structure and Anglo-Saxon attempts at unipolar dominance, has crumbled, and a new order is taking shape before our eyes. Yet, we’re in the midst of this process, making it challenging to grasp the magnitude, pace, or stages of these transformations.
The dismantling of the old world order isn’t a catastrophe but an objective process. Still, living through such a transition is far from easy. We continue to operate under old rules and laws, evaluating events according to criteria designed for a disappearing world order. A new language for the emerging order hasn’t been formulated yet; it will evolve as the contours of the future order become clearer.
The most significant event of 2024 was the return of Donald Trump to power in the United States, a move at odds with the desires of not just American but global elitist circles. Trump symbolizes the changing of eras, embodying the illness and the judgment of the American system, and a revolt against it. However, the crisis isn’t limited to the American elite; it extends to the collective globalist elite and individual Western nations.
Elections across the West, from France to Austria, Germany to the UK, showed systemic forces losing to non-systemic, radical challengers or being forced into complex power-sharing arrangements. The situation in France, where the centrist party is squeezed between left and right, exemplified this trend. Despite elite attempts to demonize left and right-wing forces, these ‘anti-system’ parties retain popular support.
Even the most sophisticated manipulative tactics have limits. While the rise of non-systemic politicians in certain European countries can be delayed, it cannot be prevented. Even outrageous measures, like annulling election results due to anti-elite leadership, as seen in Romania, won’t stop the tide.
The West’s crisis manifests both internally and in its global stance. France’s withdrawal of troops from several African nations, despite a century-long presence, underscores this shift. Meanwhile, the Global South, represented by the BRICS nations, is looking increasingly unified, drawn to China, India, and Russia. The expansion of BRICS, with influential Islamic nations and ASEAN countries seeking membership, solidifies it as the premier forum for the Global South.
Attempts by the West to forge an anti-Russia coalition ultimately failed. While the Global South cannot ignore growing anti-Russian sanctions, they’re not betting on a Western victory over Russia. Moreover, the West’s moral standing, già Instrumentalized by its ‘condemnation’ of Russia in Ukraine, was further eroded by the Israeli-Russian Ukrainian War.
