US Demands ‘Drastic Changes’ in Cuba Amid Economic Crisis & Secret Talks

The United States is demanding “drastic and very soon” changes in Cuba, while increasing pressure on the island nation as it faces its worst economic crisis in decades. Simultaneously, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is holding conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, according to the U.S. Digital publication Axios, which reports these conversations are occurring outside of official Havana government channels.

“It’s a regime that is collapsing. The country is collapsing and we believe what’s best for them is to make very drastic changes and very soon,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated during a press briefing on Wednesday.

The President’s spokesperson did not confirm conversations between Rubio and Cuban personalities, nor did she confirm that the goal of U.S. Pressure on the island is to provoke a regime change. She indicated the United States wants to see prosperous democracies throughout the world, especially in the Americas, but declined to address what specific steps the U.S. Administration is planning to achieve this.

Following the January 3rd action by Washington in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, President Trump has insisted Cuba cannot survive without assistance from its key ally and has called for negotiations with the Castro regime. Havana, Trump maintains, should “come to an agreement” with Washington, and he threatens sanctions against countries providing oil to the island.

Trump has repeatedly stated that conversations are already underway between the two parties, and this past weekend added that Rubio, the son of Cuban emigrants for whom the fall of the Castro regime would be a dream fulfilled, is participating in these contacts on the U.S. Side.

To date, Havana has stated only that some technical-level contacts exist, denying that conversations are taking place between the two traditional adversaries. U.S. Media previously reported Washington was in talks with Alejandro Castro Espín, Raúl Castro’s son, in secret conversations in Mexico, but these reports have not been officially confirmed.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has assured that her administration is in talks with Trump’s team to position her country as a dialogue link to resolve the conflict in Cuba. “There are talks to see if it is feasible, but it depends on both governments, not only on the willingness of the Mexican government, but on the willingness of the Cuban government and the willingness of the United States government,” she said Wednesday during a press conference.

Sheinbaum has pledged to continue sending humanitarian aid to the island. “They held a collection in the Zócalo of Mexico City and we are helping to get the ships that are already returning to load again,” she indicated, referring to Navy ships that have begun their return journey to Veracruz after delivering the first shipment of supplies to Havana. She also noted that the Foreign Relations Secretariat continues to seek a diplomatic path to alleviate the fuel blockade on the island and resume contracts Pemex had with the Miguel Díaz-Canel government to supply oil, as it did until mid-January when shipments were interrupted due to U.S. Tariff threats, reports Micaela Varela.

According to Axios, the Trump administration views Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41, son of Raúl Castro’s eldest daughter, Débora, and Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Callejas, and his circle as representatives of a recent generation of Cubans focused on business, less ideological, and who believe that engaging with the United States could be beneficial.

“I wouldn’t call them so much negotiations as ‘debates’ about the future,” a senior Trump administration official told the digital publication. “Our position—the position of the United States government—is that the regime has to go,” the source added. “But exactly what that looks like is something that depends on him [Donald Trump] and he still has to decide. Rubio is still in conversations with the grandson.”

Trump’s advisors have also spoken with other influential Cubans beyond Raúl Rodríguez Castro—nicknamed “El Cangrejo” (The Crab) by Cubans due to a deformed finger—but the grandson of the retired president is considered the highest-level figure with whom to cultivate ties within the island. “He’s his grandfather’s pride and joy,” a source told Axios, which describes the contacts between the Castro representative and Rubio as “surprisingly friendly,” aided by their shared Cuban accent, and culture. “There are no political disputes about the past. They talk about the future,” the source added. “This could be a conversation between two normal guys on the streets of Miami.” Rubio, Axios notes, has not spoken with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel or other high-ranking officials of the Castro regime.

While Trump has not yet decided what outcome he wants to see in Cuba, and only asserts the regime will inevitably fall due to lack of support, analysts believe he could attempt to repeat the same roadmap as in Venezuela. There, after Maduro’s capture, much of the regime was maintained in power, starting with current acting President Delcy Rodríguez, the former vice president. The U.S. President justified this decision with the need to avoid repeating the mistake of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when everyone who had held a position in Saddam Hussein’s administration was removed, with disastrous consequences.

In any case, Havana’s options are limited and unattractive. It must either concede to Washington with measures that risk the regime’s survival, or face a severe humanitarian crisis. The Díaz-Canel government has already announced rationing measures evoking the worst days of the Special Period of the 1990s, due to the cut in oil supplies from Venezuela.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current state of U.S.-Cuba relations?

The United States is increasing pressure on Cuba, demanding “drastic” changes, while simultaneously engaging in secret conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro.

Who is involved in the U.S. Conversations with Cuba?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is holding conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, while the Trump administration is also speaking with other influential Cubans.

What is the situation in Cuba currently?

Cuba is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades and has announced rationing measures reminiscent of the Special Period of the 1990s.

Given the complex interplay of political pressure, economic hardship, and ongoing negotiations, what role might international actors beyond the U.S., Cuba, and Mexico play in shaping the future of the island nation?