US Diplomat Predicts Cuba Political Transition by 2026: Hammer Interview

by Chief Editor

The U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba, Mike Hammer, signaled on Tuesday the potential beginning of a political transition on the island, stating that Washington is maintaining conversations with representatives of the Cuban government. He indicated that some within the Cuban government may not be aware of these contacts.

“Obviously there are conversations with some extremely high within the regime. Others will not be aware,” Hammer said in an interview with Telemundo in Miami.

The diplomat suggested the existence of a figure within Cuba comparable to Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, though he declined to name this individual. “Yes, there is a Delcy Rodríguez,” he affirmed.

Hammer’s statements align with those of President Donald Trump, who has stated that dialogue with Havana is underway and that news is expected. The Cuban government has denied negotiations beyond routine exchanges regarding migration and counternarcotics efforts.

Cuban Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío recently asserted that any conversations must occur “with mutual respect” and dismissed reports of internal divisions as malicious. He stated that the idea of a small group within the Cuban government willing to cede Cuba’s sovereignty is “a mistaken interpretation.”

Did You Grasp? President Trump and President Miguel Díaz-Canel have publicly disagreed about whether negotiations between their administrations are taking place.

The Spanish newspaper ABC reported that dialogue is occurring with General Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro, acting as an intermediary, a claim Hammer declined to confirm.

Hammer Affirms the U.S. Has a “Plan B”

When asked about a timeline, Hammer avoided making commitments but indicated 2026 as a potential horizon for political change in Cuba. “If in weeks it doesn’t advance, there will be a Plan B,” he warned.

He recalled President Trump offering dialogue to Nicolás Maduro in November, and following a call and several weeks without results, Maduro’s fall from power. “We have to imagine similar dates,” he said, referencing the Venezuelan situation.

Hammer emphasized that Washington’s priority is a peaceful outcome. “Nobody wants to see bloodshed, but it is very important that a change takes place,” he expressed, urging the rest of the world to “wake up and help advance this process.”

“The Cuban Revolution Has Failed”

The Chief of Mission stated that after traveling throughout several Cuban provinces and speaking with citizens, he observed a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. “The energy infrastructure is collapsing, everything is going wrong,” he said.

He described a scenario of energy collapse, a decline in tourism, and increasing insecurity, asserting that the current model is unsustainable. “What Cubans on the street notify me is that the revolution has failed. They see it every day,” he indicated.

Hammer rejected the idea that the current crisis is a consequence of the Trump administration’s policies, including the executive order of January 29th imposing tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with oil. He asserted that the deterioration predates these measures.

“The embargo does not put any restriction on food. The embargo does not put any restriction on medicine. Cuba can trade with any country in the world,” he assured. However, he noted that goods are beginning to become stranded in ports due to a lack of fuel for distribution.

Expert Insight: The suggestion of a potential “Plan B” and a timeline of 2026 indicates a deliberate strategy by the U.S. To increase pressure on the Cuban government, signaling a willingness to pursue alternative approaches if current diplomatic efforts do not yield progress.

The diplomat argued that the problem lies in the use of resources for “a repressive machine of the State,” questioning why there is fuel and vehicles for the police while large sectors of the population lack electricity and transportation.

Reconstruction and Transition in Cuba

Hammer affirmed that in a democratic scenario, reconstruction plans could be launched with support from migrants and foreign investors. He noted that the energy system alone would require approximately $10 billion, in a country lacking natural resources comparable to those of Venezuela.

Finally, the diplomat alluded to acts of repudiation he has faced in Cuba, but also highlighted the support of citizens who approach him to share their problems.

“Anyone within the leadership (…) knows that this is already ending,” he concluded, reiterating that the United States seeks to support the Cuban people without legitimizing the current regime’s continued hold on power.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Mike Hammer say about conversations between the U.S. And Cuba?

Mike Hammer stated that the U.S. Is maintaining conversations with representatives of the Cuban government, but indicated that some within the Cuban government may not be aware of these contacts.

What timeline did Hammer suggest for potential political change in Cuba?

Hammer indicated 2026 as a potential horizon for political change in Cuba, stating that if progress is not made within weeks, the U.S. Has a “Plan B.”

What did Hammer say about the current crisis in Cuba?

Hammer rejected the idea that the current crisis is a consequence of the Trump administration’s policies, asserting that the deterioration is prior and stems from the use of resources for repression.

Given the complex interplay of diplomatic signals and internal challenges within Cuba, what role might international actors play in facilitating a peaceful transition?

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