With customs threats and military action, the US is attempting to expand its influence in South America – also with a view to economic competition from China. But the strategy is not working everywhere.
US President Donald Trump began 2026 with a presumed violation of international law military strike against Venezuela – and with threats against Mexico, and Colombia. Now he has expanded the military presence in the Caribbean.
The dominance of the US in the western hemisphere should never again be questioned, Trump declared. Latin America is experiencing a revival of the so-called backyard policy. Trump adopted the expression of the “Monroe Doctrine”, based on the Monroe Doctrine from 200 years ago, which was used to legitimize US interventions in Latin America.
Argentina clearly stands behind supporter USA
“The world is beginning to awaken. The best proof of this is what is happening in America with the revival of the idea of freedom. America will be the beacon that rekindles the entire Western world.” This is what Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He is, along with Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, certainly the loudest supporter of Trump in Latin America.
When Argentina was on the verge of decisive elections last year and ran into financial difficulties, there was a $20 billion aid package from the White House – which may have saved Milei the elections.
“Tsunami of the extreme right” in South America
Trump is openly interfering – with customs tariffs, military pressure, in order to have compliant governments in the region in a politically divided continent. This coincides with a rightward shift in Latin America, which Trump additionally benefits from, says Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, Vice-Rector of the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires.
there are further important elections pending: in Peru, Colombia and Brazil. “We are currently experiencing a tsunami of the extreme right in Latin America. That began before Trump. He didn’t initiate it, but he benefits from the fact that there are ideologically similar positions, for example on the subject of migration and security,” says Tokatlian. And Latin America’s recent right finds in Trump a conversational partner, a friend, an ally, as the left never had, neither with ex-US President Bill Clinton nor with the ex-heads of state Barack Obama or Joe Biden.
US action politically motivated, according to experts
However, one should not overestimate the ideological proximity, believes Feliciano Guimaraes, Director of the Brazilian Center for International Relations CEBRI. Real strategic alliances with the US have not emerged for either Argentina or the right-wing governments of Ecuador or Paraguay. The new US interest in its southern neighbors has primarily domestic political reasons.
“Doing something about irregular immigration and the drug problem in the US were central domestic political promises of Trump. Both are closely linked to Latin America,” says Guimaraes. There is a third factor, which is geopolitical and structural in nature: “Latin America is interesting as a source of energy and critical minerals. And the US is trying to displace China and, to a lesser extent, Russia, but above all China, from Latin America.”
China is the most important trading partner for South America
China is now South America’s most important trading partner. Chinese companies are building electric cars in Brazil, investing in power plants and renewable energies in Chile, or operating the megaport of Chancay in Peru, which created a direct trade route between South America and Asia. The People’s Republic of China now sees itself as the leading power of the Global South. Parallel to the new US security strategy, Beijing presented a new Latin America strategy. It’s not just about raw materials like soybeans, lithium, copper and minerals. It’s also about global governance and the expansion of digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence in South America.
“Today, the paradox is that China brings resources, investment and aid to the region, while the US spreads ideology, rhetoric, threats and the project of the ultra-conservative MAGA movement across the continent. It is the opposite of what we experienced during the Cold War,” says Tokatlian from the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
The strategy of pressure has its limits
Although Trump has been particularly successful with his agenda in some areas – for example, by putting pressure on Panama to cancel contracts of a Hong Kong-based company for the operation of two ports on the Panama Canal. And in Mexico, which exports around 80 percent of its goods to the US, the left-wing government of Claudia Sheinbaum imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on Chinese imports at Washington’s urging.
But in South America, which is more closely linked to China, the pressure from the US is less successful. A prime example is Brazil. When the White House imposed punitive tariffs on the country – to stop a legal proceeding against ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Trump – Brazil’s President Lula da Silva stood up to it, which boosted his popularity in the country. Bolsonaro is now in prison and most of the tariffs have been lifted by the US.
Political scientist Guillermo Casaroes, who is currently researching in Miami, explains this as follows: “The tariff conflict with Brazil was not resolved because Lula and Trump ideologically agree. But because Brazil is important to the US.” Trump had to realize that it is better to perform with a pragmatic, left-wing president than to politically destabilize the country, which could even bring Brazil closer to China.
