The Erosion of the Atlantic Alliance
For decades, the bedrock of European security was the American security guarantee. However, according to Sverre Diesen—researcher, author, and former Chief of Defence—that guarantee is, for all practical purposes, dead. The logic is simple: a guarantee characterized by uncertainty is no longer a guarantee.
Diesen argues that the current political climate under the Trump administration has swept all doubt aside. While many politicians continue to claim that the US remains committed to NATO obligations to avoid self-fulfilling prophecies or the difficulty of finding alternatives, the reality on the ground suggests a fundamental shift.
The pressure on transatlantic relations has intensified, particularly following the US and Israel’s war against Iran and Trump’s public criticisms regarding the lack of support from NATO allies. This shift represents more than just a political disagreement; We see a transition toward what Diesen describes as “geopolitical anarchy.”
The Decay of Global Norms
The concern extends beyond military pacts to the very nature of the international order. There is a growing fear that the US is abandoning its role as the hegemon and protector of the world order it created. When the primary guarantor of global norms steps back, other powers are likely to follow suit, leading to a widespread erosion of international standards.
Diesen describes this trajectory as a move toward a “neo-fascist banana republic” within the US, where the world’s most powerful military apparatus is managed by leadership that may not grasp the strategic complexities of global stability.
Scandinavia’s Strategic Isolation
While the entire European continent faces uncertainty, the situation is more acute for Norway, Sweden, and Finland. These nations occupy a precarious geographic position—essentially an outpost of the Russian landmass, isolated from the rest of Europe by water.
Because of this isolation, Scandinavia is uniquely dependent on a superpower capable of deploying massive military forces across the ocean. Without the US, the strategic problem for Scandinavia is significantly greater than it is for the rest of Europe.
Can Europe Defend Itself?
The question of whether Europe can survive without the US is a central theme in Diesen’s work, “Vestens skjebnetid” (The West’s Time of Destiny). While the technical answer is “yes,” the political answer is more complex.
The primary obstacle is not a lack of resources, but a lack of will. Diesen believes that European nations are unlikely to reach the level of cross-border agreement necessary to establish a defense capability equal to what they had with the US. Europe may have to accept a future defined by significantly greater uncertainty.
The Russian Zero-Sum Game
Understanding the future of European security requires a deep dive into the Russian perspective on strategy. For Russia, security is viewed as a zero-sum game: “I am safe to the extent that you fear me.”
This mindset is rooted in fundamental historical and cultural differences, stemming from the divide between the Byzantine influence in the East and the Roman influence in the West. In this framework, any willingness to compromise is perceived as weakness.
The lesson from current conflicts is clear: dialogue alone cannot change the Russian view of the West. However, when met with absolute firmness, Russia typically accepts the situation—at least until the next opportunity to test the boundaries arises.
The Future of Warfare: A Technological Leap
Beyond politics and geography, a technological revolution is currently unfolding. Observations from the war in Ukraine indicate a shift in military technology that is as fundamental as the invention of the internal combustion engine or nuclear power.
This revolution is redefining how future wars will be fought, making previous strategic models obsolete. For European nations, the ability to adapt to these technological shifts will be as critical as their political alliances.
The future of the region will ultimately be determined by three intersecting factors:
- The collective ability to lift European defense capabilities.
- The level of Russian aggression.
- The extent of US absence from the defense of Europe.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the US security guarantee completely gone?
According to Sverre Diesen, it is effectively dead because a guarantee plagued by uncertainty ceases to be a guarantee by definition.
Why is Norway more vulnerable than other European countries?
Norway is geographically isolated from the European mainland and sits on the edge of the Russian landmass, making it solely dependent on a superpower that can cross the ocean to provide reinforcement.
How should Scandinavia respond to US uncertainty?
The recommended path is to create an integrated Scandinavian defense system to achieve strategic synergy, although this will not make these tiny states entirely independent of allies.
Why does dialogue fail with Russia?
Russia views security as a zero-sum game and interprets compromise as a sign of weakness due to deep-seated historical and cultural differences.
What do you think about the future of the Atlantic alliance? Can Europe truly locate a way to defend itself independently, or is the US indispensable? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for more deep dives into global security.
