Following an eruption episode on October 17, 2026, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory report that Kīlauea summit remains paused while summit inflation steadily recovers, and researchers have adjusted the forecast window for episode 56 to early November.
The Halemaʻumaʻu crater summit eruption at Kīlauea has remained paused since episode 55 concluded at 9:03 a.m. The summit eruption of Kīlauea in Halemaʻumaʻu remains paused following episode 55 fountaining on October 17, 2026, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. During that event, the north vent produced lava fountains reaching approximately 720 feet, or 220 meters, above ground level, sending a tephra plume roughly 25,000 feet above mean sea level. While the south and west vents did not fountain, they produced overflows before the activity started. Activity since December 23, 2024, has been confined within a closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
Summit Tiltmeters Record Post-Fountaining Recovery
Summit tiltmeters initially recorded a typical post-fountaining recovery after episode 55, characterized by a steady upward trend that gradually slowed and encountered several short-term oscillations. Following a brief negative trend on October 26, tilt resumed a gradual increase. Sulfur dioxide emission rates during inter-episode pauses typically range from 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, with light easterly winds carrying volcanic gases toward the Kaʻū Desert. Seismicity and ground deformation rates remain low in both the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone.
Scientists initially projected episode 56 to begin between October 29 and November 5, but subsequent interruptions adjusted the forecast window to early November. The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory noted that the forecast window for episode 56 fountaining is November 2–9, 2026, based on current deformation trends and assuming magma chamber inflation follows similar patterns to those established during previous episodes. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory noted that the timing change comes partially because of how differently the buildup to episode 55 unfolded, making precise forecasting more complex.
Unusual Magma Buildup Preceded The 55th Eruptive Episode
The lead-up to episode 55 departed substantially from the regular patterns observed since Kīlauea began its episodic fountaining cycle in December 2024. Summit tiltmeters recorded positive tilt beyond levels typically seen before fountaining, pointing to continued pressurization of the summit magma chamber. Instead of rising consistently, tilt remained negative or relatively stable for extended periods.
Episode 55 was preceded by 39 days of intermittent lava overflows, representing the longest precursory activity run-up recorded in the current eruption. During this interval, several short-lived vents opened inside Halemaʻumaʻu, and a shallow dike was emplaced beneath Kaluapele. A shallow magma intrusion formed beneath the caldera between September 30 and October 1, generating two earthquake swarms that included more than 30 quakes in the first and over 50 in the second, with a magnitude-3.4 earthquake drawing 30 felt reports.
Monitoring Continues Around Kaluapele And Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park
The Uēkahuna tiltmeter recorded an increase of approximately 0.7 microradians of gradual, inflationary tilt, contributing to a recovery of roughly 15.4 microradians since the end of fountaining on October 17. Four earthquakes of magnitude 1.5 or weaker were recorded in and around Kaluapele over a recent 24-hour period. Moderate-to-strong glow persisted at the west vent overnight, while the north vent showed weaker incandescence and the south vent remained dark after being buried beneath tephra.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically within the summit caldera since December 2024, and Mauna Loa is not erupting. Kīlauea’s summit is at 4,091 feet, or 1,247 meters, above sea level. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has used forecast links since episode 5 in January 2025, though it had to stop for several weeks in September 2026.
the behavior of the volcano may have changed.
Ingrid Johanson, HVO research geophysicist via Earth
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory maintains close contact with Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense Agency regarding eruptive hazards. Kīlauea’s volcano alert level and aviation color code remain at Advisory and Yellow.
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