Venezuelan Opposition Moves Chess Pieces as Maduro‘s Third Term Looms
The Venezuelan opposition is making strategic moves ahead of Nicolás Maduro’s planned inauguration for a third consecutive term (2025-2031) on January 10th, with the role of the military being "crucial," experts say. Edmundo González Urrutia, who claims victory in the disputed 2021 presidential elections, has called on the armed forces to support his claim, while María Corina Machado has called for protests.
González Urrutia, in a video message directed at the military, stated, "On January 10th, I must assume the role of commander in chief." Meanwhile, Machado urged her supporters to take to the streets on January 9th. However, the military high command has reaffirmed its "loyalty, obedience, and subordination" to Maduro, with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino warning, "Don’t mess with us."
Maduro celebrated the military’s response, tweeting, "In union with the popular-police-military, we raise our voice in total rejection of the shameless message by Edmundo González Urrutia. ¡They cannot do it!"
A Military Fracture? Unlikely, But Not Impossible
While an imminent fracturing of the chavista movement seems unlikely, experts warn that the military’s support is key to any democratic transition. Mariano de Alba, a geopolitics and diplomacy expert, told AFP that González Urrutia’s strategy aims to boost opposition efforts and increase international pressure.
However, Carol Pedroso, a professor of international relations, believes that regime change is improbable unless the opposition has "cards hidden under their sleeve," which could potentially include negotiations with top military brass.
Since winning asylum in Spain, González Urrutia has embarked on a tour through Argentina, Uruguay, and the United States, with planned visits to Panama and the Dominican Republic.
Maduro Vows Peace as Protests Loom
In anticipation of potential demonstrations, Maduro pledged peace, saying, "I’m here to guarantee perpetual peace." Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello warned that those intent on disrupting "peace" would face consequences. A chilling message of a hand knocking on a door with the caption ‘Tun Tun’ was posted by the military’s intelligence agency on social media, signaling possible arrests in homes.
Machado called on her followers to "overcome fear" as protests draw near.
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