The Victorian Liberal Party is reportedly planning to adopt a default position of preferencing One Nation ahead of Labor for the upcoming November state election. This strategy is intended to galvanise the anti-Labor vote across the state, though it has drawn sharp criticism from former political leaders.
Strategic Gamble and Political Warnings
Two sources familiar with the Liberal Party’s five-person state strategy committee indicate that One Nation would be favoured over Labor, provided there are no exceptional circumstances or “odious” candidates. Final decisions are expected to be made on a seat-by-seat basis once nominations close.
Former premier Steve Bracks has condemned the move, calling it “outrageous” and arguing that such a deal would legitimise Pauline Hanson’s party. Bracks warns that drifting further to the right could lead to the collapse of the traditional centre-right party in Australia, citing the fate of the Republic Party in France as a parallel.
The Urban-Regional Divide
While the preference strategy may assist Labor lose seats to One Nation in electorates like Melton and Cranbourne, it could create significant vulnerabilities elsewhere. Analysts suggest the move risks a backlash among voters in urban and middle-suburb heartlands.
Specifically, the strategy may develop the Liberal hold on John Pesutto’s seat of Hawthorn and Jess Wilson’s seat of Kew more precarious, while potentially harming Amelia Hamer’s chances in Malvern. There are also concerns that this shift could energise the teal movement.
Nepean By-election as a Precursor
Current how-to-vote cards for the Nepean by-election may foreshadow the party’s November approach. The Liberals are preferencing One Nation third on the ballot, placing them ahead of local independent Tracee Hutchison.
This alignment is mirrored by One Nation, which is directing its preferences to the Liberal Party ahead of Hutchison. One Liberal MP described these decisions as a “show of good faith” between the two parties.
However, the bid to retain Nepean is complicated by local disquiet over the selection of candidate Anthony Marsh. Some estranged members have even paid for advertisements urging voters to spurn Marsh, citing concerns that local members were not allowed to vote in his selection.
The Leadership Dilemma
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, a member of the state strategy committee, faces a difficult balancing act. Pollster Kos Samaras suggests that Wilson cannot win the election without success in middle and inner-urban Melbourne, where anti-One Nation sentiment is strongest.
If the party chooses not to preference One Nation, it may animate its right flank. Conversely, preferencing the party could lead to a collapse of the “small-c” conservative vote in urban Melbourne.
The outcome of the November 28 election could potentially see One Nation take seats from both major parties. Depending on the results, this could lead to a scenario where a Coalition government is dependent on One Nation’s support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is responsible for the final decision on preferences?
A five-person state strategy committee within the Liberal Party will make final preference decisions on a seat-by-seat basis after nominations close.
What has the Liberal Party officially said about these plans?
A Liberal Party spokesman stated that no decision, in-principle or otherwise, has been made and that the state campaign strategy committee has not discussed One Nation preferences for the state election.
Which specific seats could be endangered by this strategy?
The strategy may make the Liberal hold on Hawthorn and Kew more precarious and could negatively impact chances in Malvern.
Do you believe the risk of losing urban voters is worth the potential gain of consolidating the anti-Labor vote?
