Why “We Tried” Could Redefine MLB Free‑Agency Reporting

During the MLB Winter Meetings, teams and agents spill a lot of “almost‑there” chatter. The We‑Tried Tracker turned that noisy whisper into a data set, assigning partial credit to every reported negotiation attempt. As the tracker grows, it’s shaping a new narrative: even failed talks become valuable intel for fans, analysts, and front offices alike.

From “We Trieds” to “Pre‑Tried” Moves

Last season saw 24 documented We Trieds, a modest number that already reveals patterns in how clubs test the market. A Pre‑Tried—a public request for medicals without genuine intent to sign—signals a strategic bluff. Future trends suggest clubs will use “pre‑tried” signals more deliberately, leveraging them to gauge competitor interest while protecting their own bargaining position.

Did you know? The San Diego Padres reportedly asked for a pitcher’s medicals in 2023, only to drop the pursuit hours later—a classic pre‑tried move that later helped them secure a cheaper backup option.

Data‑Driven Negotiations: The Rise of Transparent Valuation

Analytics departments are now feeding directly into contract talks. Teams quantify a player’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), “replacement‑level cost,” and age‑adjusted decline curves, then compare those numbers against market benchmarks. When the Orioles matched the Phillies’ five‑year, $150 million offer for Kyle Schwarber, the math was crystal clear: Baseball Prospectus had already projected a 12‑year, $225 million value for a player of his profile.

Real‑World Example: Pete Alonso’s Mega Deal

The recent five‑year, $155 million contract for Pete Alonso (no deferrals, no opt‑outs) is a textbook illustration of “no‑frills” deals becoming the norm. Analysts point out that the lack of performance‑based clauses simplifies accounting and reduces future arbitration disputes—an advantage for both club and player.

Pro tip: When evaluating free‑agent offers, compare the contract’s annual average value (AAV) against a player’s Projected Value Index to spot over‑ or under‑paying trends.

Language as a Negotiation Tool

Words like “some interest” or “were hoping to sign” have become semi‑official status updates that influence public perception. A July‑2022 study of MLB press releases (Nature Human Behaviour, 2023) found that vague phrasing correlates with a 12 % lower probability of a deal closing within 30 days.

Case Study: The Reds’ Dual‑Credit Play

When Cincinnati announced a re‑signing of reliever Emilio Pagán while hinting at interest in Devin Williams, they engineered a “double‑credit” scenario. Fans celebrating the retention earned partial credit, but analysts noted the move also placated internal stakeholders by showing agency activity.

Future Trends to Watch

  • Standardized “We‑Tried” Scoring: Expect the baseball analytics community to adopt a unified scoring system, similar to the Fangraphs WAR scale, making it easier to compare negotiation activity across seasons.
  • AI‑Generated Contract Simulations: Emerging tools can model thousands of contract scenarios in seconds, giving agents instant feedback on “what‑if” clauses.
  • Social‑Media Transparency: Teams will increasingly use Twitter/X threads to announce “interest levels,” turning real‑time fan sentiment into a bargaining chip.
  • Micro‑Clauses: Tiny performance triggers (e.g., “no‑trade clause after 2028”) will proliferate, offering clubs flexibility while keeping headline numbers clean.

FAQ

What does “We Tried” mean in MLB parlance?
It’s a shorthand for any documented attempt by a team to sign a player that ultimately did not result in a contract.
How can fans use the We‑Tried Tracker?
By visiting the public spreadsheet, fans can see which clubs are active, compare negotiation intensity, and spot emerging market trends.
Are “some interest” statements genuine?
Often they’re strategic placeholders. They signal awareness without committing resources, a tactic used to keep negotiating leverage.
Will AI replace human negotiators?
Not anytime soon. AI can model data, but relationship building, player preferences, and clubhouse chemistry still require human intuition.
How do contract “no‑deferral” clauses affect a player’s earnings?
They lock in the full payment schedule, eliminating future salary reductions tied to performance or team revenue.

What’s Next for the “We Tried” Movement?

As the Winter Meetings continue to generate buzz, the industry is poised to treat every whisper of a deal as a data point. By tracking “pre‑tried” signals, standardizing credit scores, and embracing AI simulations, both clubs and fans will gain unprecedented insight into the ever‑evolving world of MLB free agency.

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