Alexander Dugin, often dubbed the “brain of Putin,” has seen his philosophical influence on the Russian state face a crisis of relevance as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Once the architect of “neo-Eurasianism,” Dugin now struggles to articulate a coherent purpose for the conflict, while internal dissent within the Russian elite grows as the war reaches a strategic stalemate.
Why Is the Kremlin’s War Narrative Collapsing?
The ideological justification for the conflict has lost its grip on the Russian public and elite, according to Mikhail Zygar, author of The Dark Side of the Earth. While supporters previously believed the war was a necessary evil to avoid defeat, that consensus has evaporated. Zygar notes that wealthy and influential Russians no longer argue that victory is the only path; instead, they increasingly view the war as a dead end that must be halted.
This shift is mirrored in the public sphere. According to Nina Khrushcheva, a scholar at The New School who studies propaganda, the Soviet regime once utilized ideology to justify state actions. Today, the Kremlin lacks a logical framework to explain the war’s purpose, rendering the conflict increasingly indefensible even to its original proponents.
Nina Khrushcheva is the granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev, who led the Soviet Union for over a decade following the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953.
How Is the War Impacting Russia’s Internal Stability?
The reality of the war is now impossible to mask, as the human and economic costs mount. More than a million Russians have been killed or severely injured, affecting almost every family in the country, according to reports. This toll has created a widening gap between Kremlin rhetoric and the lived experiences of citizens.
Military setbacks have further eroded the state’s position. Following a stalled offensive in Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have suffered significant losses without gaining meaningful territory. Logistical failures have become common; authorities in Crimea have resorted to fuel rationing as supply lines from Russia are targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes.
What Does the Future Hold for the Russian Elite?
The annual economic forum in St. Petersburg, once a magnet for global leaders from nations like China, France, and Japan, has seen a sharp decline in international participation. This year, the event was marked by the absence of major world leaders, with only the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tanzania in attendance. This isolation underscores the diminished global standing of the Russian state.
Despite this, hardliners continue to push for an extended conflict. During the forum, some participants suggested that Russia should remain in a state of war for two generations, while others floated the use of nuclear weapons to break the current stalemate. Dugin himself has warned that without a new, compelling ideology, the Russian state faces a critical risk of collapse.
Watch for signs of internal friction within the Russian state apparatus, as the disparity between military reality and state-sanctioned narratives continues to drive public discontent.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Alexander Dugin?
Alexander Dugin is a Russian thinker known for developing “neo-Eurasianism,” a philosophy used to justify the invasion of Ukraine and the expansion of Russian territory.
Why is the Russian elite now questioning the war?
According to Mikhail Zygar, the elite have moved past the initial belief that they had “no choice but to win.” The ongoing stalemate and lack of a clear, logical objective have caused a breakdown in the previous consensus supporting the conflict.
How has the war affected the Russian public?
The war has impacted nearly every family through high casualty rates and economic disruption. Public opinion has been further strained by the government’s inability to provide a coherent message or a path toward victory, leading to historically low approval ratings for Putin.
What do you think is the next major turning point for the conflict? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for ongoing updates on geopolitical shifts.
