Establishing in advance how much the official dollar will be in one year may seem like a chimera in the face of a reality as changing as Argentina
2022 has just started and it is interesting to have an overview of what is the vision of a group of economic consultants, rating agencies and banks, both local and international, regarding two key variables for this year: the dollar and the inflation.
For this, an interesting option is the information that it regularly publishes FocusEconomics, According to which the average that emerges from this survey that includes some 46 entities for the wholesale exchange rate would show a rise of 55%, since it would culminate in 2022 at $ 160 per unit.
However, there is a marked opening between the highs and lows, starting at $ 130 and reaching $ 180.
According to the consensus of consultants and banks, the dollar would end in 2022 at a price of $ 160
Among the respondents who project the lowest increases, we can mention the consulting firm Fitch Solutions, which forecasts a final price of $ 137, closely followed by Banco Societe Generale, at $ 136. Below are the rating agency Moody’s, which positions it at $ 134.47 and the consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics closes the list, with only 130 pesos.
If these “end of season 2022” prices are taken, the expected annual variation of the exchange rate is around 30%, with a minimum of 26% and a maximum of 32%.
Although the exchange rate projections for this group are similar, it is interesting to note that the respective views on the variation of the consumer price index vary substantially. In fact, while Fitch Solutions believes that the dollar and inflation will end up tied, in the case of Pantheon Macroeconomics, the latter will exceed 40 percent. Finally, for Moody’s the CPI will rise 46%, so the dollar will once again lag strongly in real terms.
Those who project the highest dollar
Conversely, there is a large group of banks and consulting firms that forecast that the dollar will rise substantially throughout the year.
That list is headed by the consulting firm chaired by economist Daniel Marx, since it places it at $ 180 by the end of the year. It is closely followed by Econviews, the firm led by Miguel Kiguel, as it advises it at $ 178.30.
After these consulting firms, Banco Supervielle and the consulting firms LCG, Empiria and Eco Go are positioned around $ 175.
In other words, the ranking of the highest prices is headed by five consulting firms and a bank, all of them local, and the risk rating agency Fitch Ratings is only in seventh place, which sets it at 172.50 pesos. This “top ten” is completed with the contributions of OJF & Asociados, the firm chaired by Orlando Ferreres, VDC Consultora and Invecq Consultores, who consider that the price will be around 170 pesos.
In this way, this group contemplates a variation in the exchange rate that goes from 65% in the case of Invecq Consultores to 75%, according to Quantum.
Dollar versus inflation
Beyond the nominal values assigned to the dollar for 2022, it is convenient to review the opinion of each of them with respect to what can be expected of the variation in real terms.
In this sense, the range of possibilities is also very wide, ranging from a maximum of 15% to a real fall of more than 10%
There is a large group of banks and consulting firms that forecast that the dollar will rise substantially throughout the year
Among those who bet that the dollar will recover ground are VDC Consultora, which considers that it will achieve a real improvement of more than 15%. Similarly, Banco Supervielle analysts see a rise of 14.9%. A percentage much higher than that predicted by Quantum Finance, Econviews or Empiriria, which forecast increases that average 10 percent.
At the other extreme, that is, those who point to a new real loss of the exchange rate, are located with a similar percentage (-10.3%) Moody’s and Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Undoubtedly, these enormous discrepancies in the calculations, which also extend to other key variables, such as the variation in GDP, interest rates, or the fiscal deficit, are largely due to the absence of official guidelines that should have been reflected In the national budget, which is well known, it failed to be approved in the Chamber of Deputies.
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