NATO members are accelerating defense spending at the fastest pace in years, though the alliance remains divided on meeting its ambitious 2035 targets. While nearly every member has met the traditional 2 per cent of GDP benchmark, only a select few are on track to reach the new, more demanding 3.5 per cent core military spending threshold, according to data presented at the Ankara summit.
Why is the gap between NATO members widening?
Geography and perceived security threats are driving a wedge between how different member nations approach their budgets. Countries situated closest to Russia—including Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—along with Nordic allies like Norway and Denmark, have implemented the most aggressive increases in military spending over the last decade.
In contrast, larger Western European economies are struggling to keep pace. While Germany has moved to exempt defense spending from its constitutional borrowing limits to reach a budget of over €200 billion by 2030, other nations face fiscal constraints. According to government spending plans, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain are finding it difficult to allocate the necessary funds to meet the alliance’s new 3.5 per cent target. Spain, for instance, has explicitly ruled out increasing its defense spending beyond a certain limit of GDP.
At the 2004 Istanbul summit, Turkey’s defense and aerospace exports were roughly $196 million. By 2025, that figure surged to more than $10 billion, with over half of those exports destined for other NATO allies.
How are spending targets changing for 2035?
Following a shift in strategy at the Hague summit, NATO raised its expectations for member contributions. The new benchmark requires members to dedicate 5 per cent of GDP to security by 2035. This total is split into two categories: at least 3.5 per cent for core military spending and up to 1.5 per cent for broader security priorities, such as cyber defense, infrastructure, and civil resilience.
Current data shows that while the 2 per cent goal is largely achieved, the 3.5 per cent core target remains a distant prospect for most. Even the United States, which remains the alliance’s largest spender in absolute terms, has seen its defense spending as a share of GDP drop from 3.71 per cent in 2014 to about 3.2 per cent today.
Is the credibility of defense data being questioned?
As the pressure to meet these targets intensifies, NATO has begun scrutinizing the accuracy of reporting from some member states. Reports indicate that the alliance has requested the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Albania to resubmit elements of their defense spending data. These requests follow internal questions regarding whether these nations had genuinely met the existing 2 per cent benchmark.
Pro Tip: Tracking Defense Trends
To understand the shifting balance of power, look beyond absolute dollar amounts. Analyzing defense spending as a share of GDP provides a clearer picture of a nation’s commitment relative to its economic size, which is the primary metric used by NATO leadership.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the new NATO defense spending target?
Members have agreed to reach 5 per cent of GDP for defense-related spending by 2035, with at least 3.5 per cent dedicated to core military costs. - Which countries are leading the defense spending surge?
Eastern and Nordic members, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Norway, and Denmark, have recorded the most significant increases in spending over the past decade. - Is the US still the primary defense spender?
Yes, in absolute terms, the US remains the largest spender. However, its spending as a share of GDP has declined, while European allies have steadily increased their contributions. - How is Turkey’s role evolving in the alliance?
Turkey is transitioning from a country focused on meeting spending targets to a key supplier for NATO’s rearmament, with 57 per cent of its $10 billion in defense exports going to fellow alliance members.
How do you think your country’s defense priorities should shift in the coming decade? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for more updates on global security trends.
