The Chicago White Sox hold the first overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, which begins Saturday, July 11, at 1 p.m. ET.
The Case for Grady Emerson and Roch Cholowsky
The race for the top spot has narrowed to a two-man contest between Emerson and Cholowsky. While both are shortstops, they offer different risk-reward profiles for the White Sox.
Emerson, a product of Fort Worth Christian High School in Texas, is viewed as the best pure hitter in the class. According to MLB.com, he possesses above-average tools across the board and has the highest ceiling of any prospect at the top of the board. The downside is the typical high school gamble; he lacks the track record of someone like Cholowsky and has not yet consistently translated raw power into game production.
Cholowsky provides a safer floor. The UCLA shortstop has hit 44 home runs and driven in 134 runs over two seasons with a combined OPS of approximately 1.100. He is noted for an advanced plate approach, recording more walks than strikeouts during his time with the Bruins. However, some scouts have raised concerns regarding his production when using a wood bat.
The divide in expert opinion highlights the tension between “ceiling” and “floor.” The Athletic reports that analyst Keith Law ranks Cholowsky as the No. 1 prospect overall, yet Law’s latest mock draft has the White Sox selecting Emerson first.
Odds provided via the MLB Pipeline Podcast illustrate this narrow gap:
- Jim Callis’ Odds: Emerson 51%, Cholowsky 47%, Lackey 2%
- Mayo’s Odds: Emerson 50%, Cholowsky 50%
Vahn Lackey as the Contingency Option
While the conversation centers on the shortstops, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey remains in the mix. Lackey is coming off one of the best offensive seasons in college baseball this year, posting a 1.291 OPS with 20 home runs and 15 steals. Despite these numbers, MLB.com reports he is currently viewed as a contingency plan rather than a primary contender for the No. 1 pick.
Draft Schedule and Broadcast Logistics
The 2026 event features a condensed format, shrinking from three days to two. The first four rounds occur on Saturday, while rounds five through 20 take place on Sunday.
- Day 1 (July 11): Picks 1-10 air on NBC/Peacock (1:00-2:30 p.m. ET). Picks 11-40 air on MLB Network and stream via MLB.com and MLB TV (2:30-4:30 p.m. ET). Remaining picks stream on MLB.com and MLB TV until 7:45 p.m. ET.
- Day 2 (July 12): Rounds 5-20 stream on MLB.com and MLB TV from 11:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. ET.
CBT Penalties and the Modified Draft Order
The standard draft order has been significantly altered by the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). According to The Athletic, five teams were hit with 10-pick penalties for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the CBT, pushing their first selections out of the first round.
| Team | First Selection (Pick No.) |
|---|---|
| New York Mets | 27 |
| New York Yankees | 35 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 36 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 39 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 40 |
The Dodgers are the most severely impacted in the early stages, holding only six picks in the first 10 rounds due to forfeiting selections after signing free agents who received qualifying offers.
Conversely, some teams earned additional assets. The Atlanta Braves received pick No. 26 because Drake Baldwin was on their Opening Day roster and won NL Rookie of the Year. The Houston Astros earned pick No. 28 following Hunter Brown’s top-three finish in AL Cy Young voting.
Bonus Pool Constraints and Financial Risks
Teams must operate within strict bonus pools defined by the collective bargaining agreement. For selections made after Round 10, bonuses do not count against the pool unless they exceed $150,000. If they do, only the amount over $150,000 is applied to the pool.
Exceeding these pools carries heavy financial and structural penalties. Teams facing a 0 to 5 percent overage encounter a 75 percent tax. A 5-10 percent overage results in that 75 percent tax plus the loss of a future first-round pick. If a team goes 10-15 percent over their bonus pool, they face a 100 percent tax and the loss of future first- and second-round picks.
The disparity in spending power is evident in the current pool rankings. The Pittsburgh Pirates hold the largest pool at $19,130,700, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs are tied for the bottom with $9,644,100.
Find more reporting in our Sport section.
