One Nation’s primary vote in Australia has surged to 31%, according to recent polling, positioning the party only three points ahead of Labor and signaling a significant shift in voter loyalty. This populist rise is driven primarily by Generation X—voters in their 40s and 50s—who are increasingly disillusioned by economic stagnation, rising cost-of-living pressures, and a perceived lack of integrity within the major parties.
Why is Generation X turning to One Nation?
Generation X, often described by KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley as the “sandwich generation,” is facing a unique set of economic pressures. According to Redbridge strategy director Kos Samaras, support for One Nation among this demographic peaks at 43%. Unlike previous political shifts driven by younger voters, this movement is anchored by people in their 50s who are struggling with higher debt levels and lower home ownership rates than their parents’ generation. ABS data confirms that in 1998, over 40% of Australians aged 45–54 owned their homes outright; by 2020, that figure had dropped to 15%.
Did You Know? In 1998, more than 40% of Australians aged 45–54 owned their homes outright, but by 2020, that number plummeted to just 15%, leaving many in the “sandwich generation” to manage significant mortgage debt while supporting both aging parents and children still living at home.
What are the primary drivers of voter dissatisfaction?
Economic pessimism is the central factor fueling the shift toward populist alternatives. University of Melbourne economics professor Beth Webster notes that real hourly wages for the bottom 10% of earners have grown at only 0.8% annually since 2014, while the top 10% saw 2% annual growth. This widening gap, combined with fuel price shocks and rising interest rates, has pushed consumer confidence to record lows. Voters like Wesley Jasper, a military veteran and government employee, report feeling a lack of “value for money” after decades of work, prompting him to shift from a swinging voter to a formal member of One Nation.
Expert Insight: The movement of Generation X toward the political fringes suggests a breakdown in the traditional “social contract” where hard work guaranteed stability. While the major parties have traditionally relied on incremental economic gains to maintain voter loyalty, the current data shows that persistent inflation and the erosion of home ownership are effectively pushing these once-disengaged voters to seek radical alternatives.
What could happen next in the political landscape?
If current polling trends hold, the Liberal and National parties face a potential collapse in their primary vote. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has acknowledged the global frustration with existing political systems but maintains that voters will ultimately look for parties capable of providing concrete solutions rather than just identifying grievances. Analysts expect the major parties will face increased pressure to address cost-of-living concerns to stem the drift of voters toward minor parties. However, as noted in recent reporting, viable policy solutions for the specific economic anxieties of the “sandwich generation” remain in short supply.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current primary vote share for One Nation compared to Labor?
Recent polling indicates One Nation’s primary vote sits at 31%, while Labor holds 28%.
Who is the typical voter supporting One Nation in this shift?
The base has expanded to include a broader constituency of people in their 40s and 50s who are renting in outer suburbs or regional areas, as well as those carrying significant mortgage debt.
Why are experts calling this group the “sandwich generation”?
Urban economist Terry Rawnsley uses the term because this demographic is financially and emotionally squeezed between the needs of their aging parents in their 70s and 80s and their own children who are still living at home.
Do you believe that current government policies are adequately addressing the economic concerns of middle-aged Australians?
