More than 1,000 days after the October 7 massacre, the “axis of evil”—comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran—remains functionally linked through a network of simultaneous, interconnected negotiations. According to Col. (res.) Doron Hadar, former commander of the IDF’s crisis management and negotiation unit, these organizations exploit U.S.-led mediation efforts to preserve their survival and maintain leverage, effectively keeping the fronts of the conflict connected despite separate diplomatic frameworks.
How the “Al-Aqsa Flood” Plan Linked the Fronts
The original strategy, devised by the late Yahya Sinwar, aimed to unite multiple fronts against Israel. Sinwar’s “Al-Aqsa Flood” plan sought to synchronize assaults from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran’s regional proxies to overwhelm Israeli defenses. While Hezbollah, led by the late Hassan Nasrallah, did not launch a full-scale ground invasion as the Radwan Force had previously planned, the group maintained a consistent campaign of anti-tank fire and indirect strikes.
According to Hadar, the objective of linking the fronts has succeeded in a logistical sense. The current reality functions like “connected vessels,” where an escalation in one theater—such as an assassination in Gaza—triggers an immediate, reciprocal response in Lebanon or Iran. This dynamic persists even after the elimination of key leaders like Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Ali Khamenei.
Why Current U.S. Mediation Keeps the Axis Intact
International negotiations are currently being managed through separate, parallel channels that avoid addressing the regional nature of the threat. Hadar notes that the U.S.-led frameworks are intentionally siloed to facilitate progress:
- The 14-point understanding with Iran: Led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, this framework focuses on a general ceasefire but omits specific mention of Hezbollah or Lebanon.
- The 14-point understanding with Lebanon: Led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this agreement addresses the disarmament of armed forces in Lebanon without explicitly naming Iran or its proxies, a move designed to avoid disrupting nuclear talks in Switzerland.
- The 20-point agreement with Hamas: This framework focuses on Gaza, failing to account for the financial and strategic support provided by Qatar and Iran.
The “connected vessels” theory describes how tensions in the Middle East move across borders. When one front experiences pressure, the other fronts often react to maintain the collective strength of the axis, preventing any single organization from being fully dismantled.
How Israel Can Break the Iranian Ring
To dismantle the strategic encirclement built by Iran over decades, Hadar argues that Israel must shift from reactive maneuvering to a proactive, zonal control model. The proposed path forward involves three primary phases:
- International Stability Force: Establishing a governing presence in Gaza based on divided zones.
- Palestinian Authority Cooperation: Integrating PA forces into Rafah to stabilize the territory and reduce the power vacuum.
- Sunni Alignment: Engaging moderate Sunni Muslim nations to counter Iranian influence and provide a regional alternative to the axis of evil.
Hadar warns that Israel must avoid settling for its current territorial positions. He suggests that Hamas may attempt to manufacture additional rounds of fighting specifically to influence ongoing negotiations and pressure the U.S. into demanding an IDF withdrawal from captured areas.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the “axis of evil” not launch a total war on October 7?
According to reports, Iran and its proxies feared a direct American intervention. The deployment of U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines, paired with President Joe Biden’s direct warnings, deterred a full-scale regional escalation at the onset of the conflict.
What is the primary goal of the current negotiations?
The negotiations aim to secure ceasefires and resolve immediate hostilities. However, critics like Hadar argue these talks are being exploited by militant groups to gain recognition and time to restore their operational strength.
How does the situation in Lebanon impact Gaza?
The fronts operate as connected vessels. Escalations in Gaza often trigger fire from Lebanon, and tensions involving Iran lead to defensive or offensive maneuvers across the northern border, proving the fronts remain strategically linked.
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