Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has experienced its sharpest decline in over two years, according to data from the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM). The approval dropped to 65.1%, while public trust in him fell to 71%. This downward trend, observed for three consecutive weeks, coincides with intensifying domestic disruptions caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, including fuel shortages and aggressive military recruitment tactics.
Fuel Shortages and the Failure of Infrastructure Resilience
The Kremlin’s narrative of a stable home front is facing pressure as Russia encounters its worst national fuel shortage in over two decades. VCIOM data shows a 5.3 percentage point drop in approval ratings, a decline not seen since the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region in August 2024. While Putin claimed in a June 30 interview with Pavel Zarubin that energy infrastructure repairs were proceeding and that the energy system continues to work with a “significant margin of safety,” the operational reality suggests otherwise.
Ukraine’s systematic campaign against Russia’s 11 largest oil refineries has crippled domestic supply. Notably, the Kapotnya refinery—a primary fuel source for the Moscow region—was struck twice this month. The facility is not expected to resume full production until at least the end of 2026. Consequently, at least 17 Russian regions have been forced to implement mandatory restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales to manage the dwindling supply.
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The “rally ’round the flag” effect, often observed during conflicts like the 1999 Second Chechen War and the 2014 occupation of Crimea, has historically provided Putin with approval ratings as high as 87%. Current data suggests this pattern is weakening as the conflict’s economic toll reaches the civilian population.
The Breakdown of the Implicit Social Contract
For over two decades, Putin’s political stability rested on an implicit social contract: citizens surrendered political freedoms in exchange for stability, security and a return to normal life. This balance is now fraying. Beyond the fuel crisis, the normalization of “Kelim” (Carpet) protocols—security measures that halt airport operations whenever drones are detected—has disrupted national transit. On June 18, 2026, a major drone strike forced the cancellation of at least 527 flights across Moscow’s airports.
The social strain is further exacerbated by increasingly aggressive military recruitment. In regions like Penza, reports indicate that officials are stopping men on the streets, at workplaces, and in retail stores to force them to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Residents have turned to Telegram to track patrol locations, signaling a shift in daily life where avoidance of state authorities has become a primary survival strategy for many.
Analyzing Trends in State-Sanctioned Polling
While VCIOM and other polling organizations, including the Levada Center, provide the primary data on Russian sentiment, experts note that these figures must be interpreted with caution. State-controlled polling often faces challenges regarding respondent self-censorship, as citizens may be reluctant to express dissent even in anonymous environments.
However, the shift in numbers remains a key indicator for observers. Analysts prioritize the direction of the trend over absolute percentages. The current decline suggests that the Kremlin’s image of an unaffected, powerful home front is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. When compared to December 2021, when approval hovered around 61% amid pandemic-related economic fatigue, the current volatility highlights the fragile nature of public support as the war enters its fifth year.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is the approval rating dropping now?
The decline follows sustained pressure from Ukrainian drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure and the increasing visibility of forced military recruitment, which have disrupted daily life for ordinary Russians. - What is the difference between “approval” and “trust” in Russian polling?
Approval measures how people evaluate the performance of a leader, while trust is broader, asking whether people generally trust that leader, regardless of how they feel about specific decisions. - Are these polls reliable?
State-run polls like VCIOM are subject to scrutiny due to their ties to the government. Analysts use them primarily to track trends over time rather than as precise reflections of private opinion, given the prevalence of self-censorship.
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