Russia Refuses Trump‘s Ceasefire Scenario in Ukraine
Moscow has dashed hopes for a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine war by rejecting a key element of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed ceasefire plan, according to a state-owned media report. Trump’s victory in the November election, his repeated criticism of Ukraine, and his pledge to end the war within a day of taking office have sparked concerns among NATO allies over the potential compromises Ukraine might be asked to make.
However, Russia’s rejection of what is reported to be a significant aspect of Trump’s ceasefire proposal underscores warnings from analysts who have cautioned against assuming that Russia will certainly end the war on agreed terms.
Why Russia Rejected Trump’s Ukraine Ceasefire Scenario
- Ending the Ukraine War Could Be Just a Promise
Trump has been cryptic about his plans. "I can’t give you the plan because if I give you the plan, I won’t be able to use it. The plan is so good that if I go through the plan, it won’t work," Trump told podcast host Lex Fridman in September, as reported by Al Jazeera.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours. However, in a December 12 interview with Time magazine, he acknowledged that "The Middle East is an easier problem to solve than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine."
Trump and his aides have floated several ideas for a Ukraine ceasefire. Here’s what we know so far:
- On November 6, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump’s ceasefire plan involves delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years, citing three sources close to Trump.
- Trump’s vice president-elect, Mike Pence, hinted at more details of Trump’s plan in a September interview for the Shawn Ryan Show. Pence said the current demarcation line between Russia and Ukraine would become a "demilitarized zone," fortified to prevent further Russian aggression.
- The WSJ report said this demilitarized zone would stretch nearly 1,290 km (800 miles). While it’s still unclear who would oversee this zone, a unnamed member of Trump’s team told WSJ, "Its arms will be held by Europe."
- Pence also suggested that Ukraine would have to cede some of its territory to Russia, including parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Russia has controlled roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory since 2014.
- On November 27, Trump appointed retired general Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war. In April, Kellogg co-authored a strategy paper that suggested the U.S. could continue arming Ukraine, conditional on Kyiv’s agreement to participate in peace talks with Moscow.
