Russian state officials are increasingly using the term “war” in public discourse, signaling a potential shift toward a new, large-scale mobilization effort. According to Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, this rhetorical pivot—coupled with reports of restrictive exit legislation—suggests that Moscow is preparing the domestic population for further military escalation and severe travel limitations by autumn.
The Shift from “Special Operation” to “War”
For months, the Kremlin maintained a strict linguistic discipline, mandating the use of “special military operation” to describe the conflict in Ukraine. Recent comments from Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov mark a departure from this policy. In a widely noted interview with the Swiss outlet Die Weltwoche, Peskov openly referred to the conflict as a “war.”
Analysts view this as a deliberate strategy. Kovalenko argues that such a change in official terminology is rarely accidental. Instead, it serves as a psychological precursor to unpopular domestic decisions, specifically the mass mobilization of citizens to the front lines. By normalizing the term “war,” the state aligns public expectations with the reality of an intensified conflict.
Did you know?
The Kremlin’s current stance, as articulated by Peskov, conditions the end of hostilities on Ukraine withdrawing its troops from territories that Russia has incorporated into its constitution, including the Donbas region.
Proposed Restrictions on International Travel
Beyond rhetoric, there are indications of concrete legislative preparations designed to curb the movement of Russian citizens. The independent research project Možem objašnjitj reports that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is drafting legislation to reintroduce “exit visas.”
If enacted, these measures would effectively end the ability of individuals to travel freely. The proposed framework suggests that trips to countries deemed “unfriendly” by the Kremlin would be restricted to group travel, consisting of at least ten people. These groups would require government-appointed chaperones, and every aspect of the itinerary would need prior state approval. Such mechanisms would allow the Russian government to maintain near-total control over its population, ensuring that potential recruits for a new mobilization wave remain within the country’s borders.
Survival Risks and Mobilization Warnings
Andriy Kovalenko has issued a stark warning via Telegram, urging Russian citizens who wish to avoid combat to leave the country while it remains technically possible. He cites the extreme danger facing new recruits, noting that survival rates on the front lines are often measured in minutes rather than days. The anticipated mobilization, if triggered in the autumn, is expected to be accompanied by strict enforcement measures, including a total ban on foreign travel for those eligible for military service.
When tracking geopolitical developments, focus on changes in state media rhetoric. Shifts in terminology—like the move from “special operation” to “war”—often precede significant changes in domestic policy or military engagement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has the Kremlin changed its language regarding the war?
According to analysts, the shift from “special military operation” to “war” is a psychological preparation for the public, signaling that the state is readying citizens for new, potentially unpopular mobilization efforts.
Are there plans to restrict travel for Russian citizens?
Reports from the research project Možem objašnjitj indicate that the Russian Foreign Ministry is developing legislation for exit visas, which would require state-approved group travel for those visiting “unfriendly” nations.
What is the risk for those mobilized in a new wave?
Andriy Kovalenko of the Center for Countering Disinformation warns that current front-line conditions are extremely hazardous, with survival times for new infantry often reaching only thirty minutes.
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