Why the United States Is Eyeing a Fragmented EU
Since the release of the U.S. National Security Strategy, analysts have warned that Washington may be pursuing a subtle “divide‑and‑conquer” policy toward Europe. The strategy labels the continent as “in decline” and hints at a future where some member states drift away from Brussels. While the official document never names any country, leaked drafts and insider testimonies point to Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary as priority targets.
Four Countries, Four Strategic Motives
- Hungary – Long‑standing ally of Donald Trump and Viktor Orban. The country receives informal “financial shields” that offset frozen EU funds and enables Budapest to defy EU energy sanctions.
- Poland – Home to the nationalist Law & Justice (PiS) party, which regularly clashes with EU rule‑of‑law mechanisms. A Polish‑friendly U.S. stance could deepen Warsaw’s security reliance on Washington.
- Austria – The Freedom Party (FPÖ) remains the strongest force in recent polls, creating a fertile ground for anti‑EU rhetoric that aligns with U.S. interests.
- Italy – Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party shares cultural‑conservative values with Orban, yet retains a pragmatic view of the EU—making Italy a “soft‑target” for diplomatic pressure.
Real‑World Evidence of a Shift
In 2023, the U.S. Treasury granted Hungary a waiver on sanctions for Russian oil—an unprecedented move that signaled Washington’s willingness to trade economic leeway for political loyalty. At the same time, Poland’s new president, a PiS‑backed figure, has publicly called for a closer NATO‑U.S. partnership, hinting at a possible “dual‑track” approach that bypasses EU coordination.
Data from the European Commission shows that in 2022, EU cohesion funds earmarked for Hungary fell by 38 % after Brussels froze payments over democratic backsliding. By contrast, U.S. private‑sector investment in Hungarian tech startups rose by 22 % in the same period, suggesting a financial realignment.
Future Trends: What Could the Next Five Years Look Like?
1. Targeted Economic Incentives
Washington may deploy “strategic grants” or low‑interest loans to the four focus states, designed to offset EU funding cuts. Expect a rise in bilateral agreements covering green‑energy projects, digital infrastructure, and defense procurement.
2. Energy Policy as a Lever
EU plans to phase out Russian gas by 2027 clash with Hungary’s refusal to comply. If the U.S. continues to grant exemptions, the energy‑policy split could become a catalyst for broader policy divergence within the bloc.
3. Information‑Campaign Coordination
Recent leaks reveal U.S. consultants working with think‑tanks in Poland and Austria to shape public narratives around sovereignty and “EU overreach.” Similar campaigns could intensify ahead of EU elections, leveraging social‑media micro‑targeting tools.
4. Diplomatic “Club‑Member” Alliances
We may see an informal “Atlantic‑4” club, where the four states hold regular high‑level meetings with U.S. officials outside the EU framework. Such gatherings would echo Cold‑War era “Pact” meetings, creating parallel decision‑making channels.
What This Means for the Rest of Europe
Countries that remain firmly pro‑EU—such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Estonia—might double‑down on collective defence initiatives, potentially accelerating NATO‑EU convergence. Conversely, nations with ambivalent stances (e.g., the Czech Republic and Slovakia) could become swing votes in future EU policy battles, especially if internal party dynamics shift toward the right.
Expert Pro Tips for Policy Makers
- Monitor Funding Flows: Track changes in U.S. assistance versus EU cohesion money to spot early signs of realignment.
- Strengthen Transparency: Encourage EU institutions to publish all diplomatic engagements with non‑EU states to counter misinformation.
- Invest in Energy Independence: Diversify gas supplies through the Southern Corridor and renewable projects to reduce leverage points.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is the U.S. officially trying to split the EU?
- No formal policy has been announced, but leaked drafts and selective financial incentives suggest a strategic interest in weakening collective EU decision‑making.
- Why are Italy and Austria included despite recent centrist governments?
- Both countries host powerful right‑wing parties that can swing national policy, making them attractive for U.S. diplomatic outreach.
- How could EU energy sanctions affect Hungary?
- Hungary may continue to rely on Russian supplies, risking sanctions violations and creating a fissure between Brussels’ climate goals and Budapest’s energy security.
- What role does NATO play in this dynamic?
- NATO acts as the conduit for U.S. security guarantees, allowing Washington to bypass EU mechanisms while still influencing European defence policy.
What Comes Next?
The next EU parliamentary cycle will test whether Washington’s subtle influence can turn strategic partners into “policy outliers.” Watch for new bilateral agreements, energy‑policy disputes, and coordinated media campaigns—all signs that the trans‑Atlantic relationship is evolving from a single‑track alliance to a complex, multi‑layered chessboard.
Stay informed on the shifting balance of power in Europe. Subscribe to our newsletter for weekly analysis, and share your thoughts in the comments below.
Related reading