Primary polling faced intense scrutiny following major upsets in Michigan and Wisconsin Democratic primaries. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point despite trailing by 20 points in polls, echoing a similarly tight margin in Michigan’s Senate contest.
Primary election polling is facing a harsh reckoning after two consecutive, high-profile contests in the Midwest shattered pre-election projections. While pollsters and analysts often emphasize the inherent difficulties of forecasting primaries—where turnout is notoriously volatile and undecided voters frequently break late en masse—the sheer scale of the misses in Wisconsin and Michigan has left political observers examining how modern surveys capture shifting voter sentiment.
David Crowley’s Last-Minute Surge and Francesca Hong’s Stumbles in Wisconsin
In Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley pulled off an improbable victory after dropping out of the race on July 8 and later re-entering with the backing of outgoing Governor Tony Evers.
For months, pre-election surveys had painted a very different picture. Hong consistently led the field by nearly 20 percentage points in public and tracking polls. Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ, noted that while the final polls accurately captured Hong’s level of support in the mid-to-upper 30s, they drastically underestimated the surge for Crowley as undecided voters broke heavily in his favor during the closing days.
Campaign trail headwinds also played a role in reshaping the electorate. Hong spent the final week of the race defending past social media remarks, including a post about canceling Thanksgiving, which brought electability concerns to the forefront. Meanwhile, Chaz Nuttycombe, the executive director of State Navigate, pointed out another structural factor: Wisconsin’s open primary system.
Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for DDHQ, said that because candidates were getting in and out of the race—specifically mentioning David Crowley getting back in—there was a lot happening in a pretty short amount of time.
Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens Face Off Amid Michigan Primary Polling Gaps
The Wisconsin surprise followed a similarly nail-biting contest in Michigan, where progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens by less than a percentage point in the Democratic primary for an open Senate seat. Polls had previously given El-Sayed an average lead of roughly 13 points leading up to election day.
The Michigan primary crystallized a national proxy battle between the Democratic Party’s progressive and establishment wings. Stevens secured endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former Senator Debbie Stabenow, and retiring Senator Gary Peters, who emphasized her legislative effectiveness and appeal to moderate swing voters. El-Sayed, backed by high-profile progressives including Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Elizabeth Warren, pressed a platform centered on Medicare for all.
Whitt Kilburn, a political science professor at Grand Valley State University, noted that the state’s erratic voting patterns made traditional forecasting models unreliable. Regarding the conventional wisdom on Michigan voters, all bets are off,
Kilburn told the outlet regarding the myriad factors influencing the electorate.
Methodological Hurdles and the Challenge of Primary Electorates
Polling experts highlight that predicting primary outcomes remains uniquely difficult compared to general elections.
Furthermore, late candidate shifts scrambled the landscape in both states. In Michigan, State Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign earlier in the cycle but remained on the ballot, capturing 4 percent of the vote. In Wisconsin, the fluid entry and exit of candidates created a compressed and unpredictable timeline.
Both Crowley and Hong have turned their attention toward the November general election. Crowley will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump who voted against certifying the 2020 election results.
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