Yemen is experiencing deepening fractures as separatists in the south make a move for independence. The current instability stems from the Houthi rebels seizing power in Sanaa in late 2014, followed by military intervention by Saudi Arabia – with support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in favor of the internationally recognized government.
Southern Separatists Advance
In early December, southern Yemeni separatists, part of the anti-Houthi bloc, took control of the eastern provinces of Hadramaut and Mahra. These provinces are strategically important due to Hadramaut’s hydrocarbon deposits – holding 80% of the country’s crude oil reserves – and Mahra’s border with Oman.
Following the takeover, the head of the Presidential Council and Prime Minister of the internationally recognized government left Aden for Saudi Arabia. This allowed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the primary separatist group, to raise its flag at the presidential headquarters, signaling a potential declaration of independence.
Seeking Recognition and Support
The STC’s leader, General Aidarus al Zubaidi, has appealed to Western countries for support, arguing that southern Yemenis “share [their] values and reject terrorism” and accusing the government of abandoning efforts to reclaim Sanaa. Former Foreign Minister Khaled Alyemani is also seeking support from the White House, arguing that an independent South Yemen would be strategically valuable to Washington by securing a vital waterway without requiring a U.S. troop presence in the Persian Gulf and potentially joining the Abraham Accords.
A History of Division
The desire for secession among many southern Yemenis is not new. Despite the 1990 unification of the Marxist republic governing the south with North Yemen, the integration proved unsuccessful. This failure led to a civil war four years later and the subsequent repression of the Southern Movement by the regime of Ali Abdalá Saleh over the following two decades. Southerners, who had their own country since the end of British rule in 1967, felt they were treated as second-class citizens. The STC now controls almost all the territory of the former South Yemen Democratic Republic.
Regional Competition
The timing of this advance is linked to both internal and regional factors. The STC, funded and armed by the UAE, justified its offensive in Hadramaut by citing the deployment of troops around oil fields by a local tribal leader supported by Saudi Arabia. It is unlikely that Al Zubaidi would attack a Saudi-aligned force without the approval of the UAE. This situation reflects a competition for influence between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia reportedly seeking a deal with the Houthis – a move complicated by the separatist advance.
Negotiations to de-escalate tensions are underway between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, but the recent actions by the STC have escalated the competition into hostility. The STC has provided the UAE with leverage in the future political landscape of the country. However, this situation is precarious; without an agreement, or if local factions clash, the south risks a new conflict in one of the world’s poorest nations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the recent advance by southern Yemeni separatists?
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) took control of Hadramaut and Mahra provinces, citing the deployment of troops around oil fields by a Saudi-backed tribal leader as justification for their offensive.
What is the historical basis for the separatist movement in southern Yemen?
Despite unification in 1990, the integration of South and North Yemen was unsuccessful, leading to a civil war and the repression of the Southern Movement, as southerners felt they were treated as second-class citizens.
What role are external actors playing in the current situation?
The UAE funds and arms the STC, while Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking a deal with the Houthis, creating a competition for influence that has escalated with the separatist advance.
How will the complex interplay of internal and external forces shape the future of Yemen?