The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that northern states may experience visible northern lights tonight, driven by a Kp index of 4. While auroral activity is expected to decline later in the week, residents in northern latitudes—particularly in Alaska, Washington, and the Upper Midwest—have the highest probability of viewing the phenomenon before activity levels subside.
Where to View the Aurora Borealis Tonight
According to the latest NOAA projection, Alaska remains the primary location for potential sightings, with much of the state’s interior showing a high likelihood of activity. In the contiguous United States, the northern edges of Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan may see the lights, though the probability is lower than in the far north.
Pro Tip: NOAA advises viewers to seek out high vantage points far from urban light pollution. The optimal window for viewing typically occurs between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, when auroral activity is historically at its peak.
Understanding the Kp Index and Solar Activity
NOAA uses the Kp index to measure geomagnetic activity on a scale of 0 to 9. Tonight’s forecast of 4 indicates “more auroral activity,” which can produce displays that are visually distinct. However, NOAA notes that no geomagnetic storms are expected tonight. Because geomagnetic storms are the primary drivers for more intense and expansive displays, the lack of storm activity means the lights will likely be confined to higher latitudes.
The forecast for Tuesday shows a decrease in strength, with a projected Kp index of 3. This reduction suggests a smaller geographic reach, meaning fewer states will have the opportunity to view the aurora compared to tonight.
Long-term Trends in Solar Cycles
Between 2024 and 2025, the sun reached its “maximum” phase, a period characterized by increased solar events like geomagnetic storms. NASA reported that 2024 saw auroral activity hit a 500-year peak, significantly surpassing initial scientific projections.
As the sun begins to transition out of this maximum period, scientists expect auroral activity to decline throughout the latter half of the decade.
Did you know? You don’t need professional gear to capture the aurora. Travel photographers recommend using a tripod to keep your camera steady during long exposures. For iPhone users, switching to “Night Mode” and shooting in RAW format provides the best results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best time to see the northern lights?
NOAA recommends looking for the lights between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, as this is when the aurora is generally most active.
Do I need a geomagnetic storm to see the lights?
No, but storms typically enhance the display. Without a storm, the lights are usually visible only in northern regions.
Why are the northern lights becoming less frequent?
Activity is tied to the solar cycle. As the sun moves past its “maximum” phase, solar activity naturally declines, leading to fewer and less intense displays over the next several years.
Have you managed to catch a glimpse of the aurora tonight? Share your best viewing locations or photography tips in the comments below, and subscribe to our newsletter for the latest space weather updates.
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