Many regions across India may avoid temperatures hotter than usual this month, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts ‘above normal’ rainfall. However, a significant heatwave risk persists for specific states, according to the May forecast released Friday.
Regional Heatwave Risks and Temperature Trends
Certain areas are likely to experience ‘above normal’ heatwave days, potentially adding 3 to 8 days of extreme heat. These regions include southern Himachal and Uttarakhand along the Himalayan foothills, the eastern coast, and parts of Gujarat, and Maharashtra.
Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal or below normal in many parts of the country. Conversely, above-normal temperatures are likely in northwest India, some parts of the northeast, and much of southern peninsular India.
Nighttime minimum temperatures are predicted to be above normal across many regions. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that this phenomenon is linked to climate change.
Some exceptions to the warmer nights exist. Normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely in many areas of northwest India, parts of central India, adjoining peninsular India, and southern parts of the northeast.
Drivers of Rainfall and Extreme Weather
The expected ‘above normal’ rainfall this month is attributed to thunderstorm activity and an increased frequency of western disturbances. These patterns are driven by upper air cyclonic circulations and favourable troughs, which may push daytime temperatures to ‘below normal’ in certain regions.
Western disturbances—low-pressure systems and moist air from the Mediterranean region—have already had a volatile impact. In April, seven such events caused lightning, winds, rain, and thunderstorms across east, central, and northwest India.
These extreme weather events claimed 24 lives last month. Lightning alone was responsible for 10 deaths across Maharashtra, UP, Andhra, and Odisha.
Monsoon Arrival Timeline
The Southwest monsoon is expected to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between May 14-20. The arrival of the monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala, which is expected around May 15.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states are most likely to face additional heatwave days in May?
Above normal heatwave days, totaling an additional 3 to 8 days, are likely in Gujarat, Maharashtra, the eastern coast, and Himalayan foothill states including Uttarakhand and southern Himachal.
What is causing the ‘above normal’ rainfall predicted for this month?
The rainfall is attributed to thunderstorm activity and the increased frequency of western disturbances, aided by upper air cyclonic circulations and favourable troughs.
When is the monsoon expected to arrive in India?
The monsoon is expected to arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-20 and is expected to reach Kerala around May 15.
How has the changing weather in your region affected your daily routine this month?
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