Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months and may launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border Russia, according to a new threat assessment from Denmark’s defence intelligence service. The agency, known as the FE, described the risk of such a military strike as low but growing,
noting that such a move would be a “desperate” action by Moscow.
Potential Military and Hybrid Tactics
Thomas Ahrenkiel, the chief of the defence intelligence service, stated at a press conference that the goal of such actions is not to seize territory but to “divide NATO.” He identified several scenarios Russia might employ in the coming months:
- Isolated strikes using long-range weapons, such as missiles or drones, targeting infrastructure that supports Ukraine.
- The deployment of a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially using the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. These troops might operate without insignia.
- False-flag operations involving the use of Ukrainian-made drones.
Beyond direct military strikes, the FE warns that Russia will carry out more frequent hybrid attacks with greater consequences
than previously seen. These could include sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties and destructive cyber-attacks designed to cripple societal functions. The Danish Resilience Agency has already raised its threat level due to the likelihood of such cyberattacks against Denmark.
Strategic Objectives and NATO Stability
The intelligence report suggests Russia aims to divert European resources away from Ukraine and test the resolve of the alliance. Specifically, the FE warned that Russia may seek to test NATO’s Article 5 collective defence commitment, potentially calculating that member states will not respond collectively if the United States is unwilling or unable to support its European allies. While the service believes an outright invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely,
it stated the possibility cannot be ruled out.
Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus attributed these threats to Russia being under pressure and failing to meet its objectives, which has led Moscow to target the support provided to Ukraine. Regarding long-term capabilities, the FE concluded that while Russia could wage a local war against a neighboring NATO country in about six months, it would take two years to pose a credible threat to the region and five years to recover from the Ukraine invasion to wage a large-scale war in Europe.
Broader Regional Context
The Danish warning follows other reports of Russian aggression and instability in Europe. The Danish military reported that a Russian frigate recently fired two flares at a Danish military helicopter in international waters, with one narrowly missing the aircraft. Germany also recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, and other investigations have looked into fires at drone factories and sabotage of rail infrastructure.
Similar concerns have been raised by other leaders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously told parliament that Russia plans “hybrid-style” drone and missile strikes against nations supporting Ukraine, including Poland. Tusk cited cyberattacks on hospitals and energy infrastructure, as well as damage to rail lines between Warsaw and the Ukrainian border, as evidence of Russian sabotage.
Russian Response
The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the FE’s assessment, claiming it is unsupported by credible evidence and accusing Denmark and the West of increasing tensions over Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in sabotage operations in NATO countries, hybrid warfare, or any plotting of confrontation.