U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 90,000 in September while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% for the third consecutive month, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Reuters reported that the anticipated moderation follows an August surge of 162,000 jobs, which analysts attribute largely to government seasonal adjustment models.
Economists project slower September payroll growth
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that September payroll growth will cool down significantly from August’s revised figures. Consensus expectations are centered at 90,000 net new jobs, with private payroll estimates sitting near 85,000. Forecast ranges span widely from a low of 35,000 to a high of 180,000.
Seasonal Model Adjustments Distort August Data
Financial analysts point to government adjustment procedures as the primary driver behind August’s surprisingly strong job count. Bank of America economists added that August payrolls benefited from far more favorable seasonal adjustments than previous years, creating a strong risk of a September payback.
Inflation risks return as wage growth slows
Paychecks are beginning to lose steam just as inflation risks show signs of returning. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% in September, bringing the annual wage growth rate to 3.2%, up slightly from 3.1% in August. Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, told Reuters that the rebound in inflation arrives at an unfortunate time when paired with slowing wage growth as the labor market cools. CME Group FedWatch data indicates that financial markets are pricing in roughly a 28% chance of monetary policy tightening at the upcoming October 27-28 Federal Reserve meeting, down from about 69% a week prior.
Frequently Asked Questions About the September Jobs Report
What date will the Bureau of Labor Statistics release the September employment report?
The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the closely watched September employment report on Friday, as reported by Reuters.
What is the current consensus for the September unemployment rate?
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1% for the third straight month.