According to Fox Footy analyses of the remaining AFL fixture, a dramatic upset at Marvel Stadium by Carlton over the Brisbane Lions has drastically reshaped the top-four race and the battle for the final wildcard spots with three rounds left in the home-and-away season. The projections calculate each game on a percentage chance basis to determine expected win totals for the league’s inaugural 10-team finals series.
Fremantle and Sydney Secure Top Spots in Projected Ladder
According to Fox Footy projections, Fremantle sits atop the ladder with 20.05 projected wins, followed closely by the Sydney Swans with 17.55 wins. Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir noted that the team has “bigger fish to fry” as they approach the final stretch. The Dockers would need to lose three straight games by reasonable margins while Sydney wins three straight to lose the minor premiership, according to league analysts. Meanwhile, the Sydney Swans face the second-easiest remaining fixture, starting with a match against Port Adelaide at the SCG on Saturday.
Hawthorn and Brisbane Battle for the Double Chance
Brisbane coach Chris Fagan admitted his team was “off the boil tonight” during the Marvel Stadium clash. Hawthorn now enjoys a clear path to a double chance if they defeat Brisbane at the Gabba on Friday. Geelong lurks closely behind in sixth place with 14.6 projected wins, boasting the easiest remaining fixture in the competition according to the analysis.
Pro Tip: Understanding Projected Wins
Unlike simple tipsters who pick single winners, probability models assign percentage chances to each match—such as a 50-50 split yielding 0.5 wins each—creating a more accurate representation of team strength over 1,000 simulated seasons, according to Fox Footy.
The Wildcard Race and the Fight for Tenth
According to Fox Footy projections, the Western Bulldogs (13.5 wins) and Collingwood (12.95 wins) look locked into the eighth versus ninth wildcard final at the MCG. Further down, Carlton (11.2 wins) faces St Kilda (11.05 wins) at Marvel Stadium on Sunday in a match that will heavily dictate the final wildcard position. St Kilda coach Ross Lyon clashed with the media following a loss to Sydney, while GWS Giants coach Adam Kingsley expressed satisfaction after a strong game that kept their mathematical hopes alive at 10.9 projected wins.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does The Run Home projection model work?
According to Fox Footy, the model predicts each remaining game on a percentage chance basis rather than binary tipping, generating fractional projected win totals that reflect statistical probability.
Where will the wildcard finals be played?
According to the projected finals bracket, the first wildcard final (7th vs 10th) and second wildcard final (8th vs 9th) will be played at the MCG the week after the home and away season ends.
Can Brisbane still make the top four after losing to Carlton?
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