The Philippines is pushing to finalize a legally binding South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) by the end of 2026, aiming to prevent regional maritime choke points similar to the crisis-prone Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro stated on June 22 that the agreement is intended as a stabilizing mechanism for global trade, though negotiators remain deadlocked on core definitions of “self-restraint” and the geographic scope of the rules.
Why the South China Sea Code Matters Globally
Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro characterizes the proposed Code of Conduct as “ASEAN’s gift to the world,” a necessary framework to ensure maritime security and prevent the volatility recently seen in the Middle East. According to Lazaro, the urgency of the deal stems from the 2024 energy shock, where conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to exceed US$100 per barrel. By establishing clear rules for the South China Sea, ASEAN seeks to insulate Southeast Asian energy corridors from similar disruptions, according to her June 22 interview with The Straits Times.
Negotiators are currently meeting on a monthly basis to discuss the COC, a frequency that Foreign Secretary Lazaro noted is an unprecedented acceleration compared to previous years of talks.
Unresolved Roadblocks in Negotiations
Despite the push for a 2026 deadline, four critical points remain contested between ASEAN and China. According to Lazaro, these include whether the agreement will be legally binding, its precise geographic scope, its relationship to the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and the formal terms of reference. While Lazaro maintains that the parties do not have “fundamental” disagreements on the code’s ultimate goal, the definition of “self-restraint”—a term debated for nearly a decade—remains a primary sticking point, she told a Washington forum in June.
The Internal Tension in Philippine Foreign Policy
The Philippines is currently balancing a dual-track approach to Beijing: the Department of Foreign Affairs’ emphasis on diplomacy and the more combative stance of the Department of National Defense. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has publicly criticized Beijing’s activities in disputed waters, warning that negotiations could provide China with strategic advantages. Addressing this, Foreign Secretary Lazaro clarified that the nation’s foreign policy is directed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and that while security agencies hold their own mandates, bilateral discussions remain focused on finding solutions to basic regional problems.
ASEAN Response to Myanmar and Energy Security
ASEAN is currently in an “exploratory stage” regarding its engagement with Myanmar’s military government, five years after the regional Five-Point Consensus was established. According to Lazaro, who serves as the ASEAN chair’s special envoy, the group is still assessing the new government’s capacity to adhere to the consensus. Simultaneously, the region is struggling to operationalize the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA). While leaders have called for regional fuel stockpiles, analysts remain skeptical of the agreement’s effectiveness, noting that fuel sharing under the current framework remains strictly voluntary and commercial.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the South China Sea Code of Conduct legally binding?
The Philippines is pushing for the agreement to be legally binding, but this remains one of the four core unresolved issues being negotiated with China, according to Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro.
What is the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA)?
APSA is a regional framework designed to bolster energy resilience through fuel stockpiling and sharing. However, critics and officials, including President Marcos Jr., have noted that it lacks clear operational details, such as storage protocols and priority access during shortages.
What is the current status of the Myanmar peace process?
ASEAN is currently in an exploratory phase, evaluating whether the current government in Naypyitaw can meet the demands of the five-year-old Five-Point Consensus, which centers on the cessation of hostilities.
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