A staggering 77 percent of over 900 published studies mapped by Carbon Brief show that extreme weather events were made more likely or severe by human-caused climate change. The UK-based organisation compiled the data across nearly 1,000 weather events and trends worldwide, setting human-driven warming against a backdrop of rising global temperatures that reached 1.44 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average by 2025.
Mapping Extreme Weather Across Over 900 Studies
Carbon Brief mapped every published research paper examining how climate change influences extreme weather. Out of the studies analyzed by the organisation, 85 percent of the tracked events and trends received a likely influence from human activity. While 77 percent of cases saw increased severity or probability, about 8 percent of mapped events and trends became less likely or less severe.
This comprehensive mapping builds upon decades of attribution science. In 2004, researchers published one of the first studies tying human emissions to a specific extreme event: the 2003 European summer heatwave that claimed more than 70,000 lives. That initial study concluded that human involvement doubled the risk of such extreme heat.
NASA Satellite Data Tracking Intensity Spikes
NASA released satellite data in 2025 revealing a dramatic increase in the intensity of droughts and floods over the preceding five years. Tracked via the GRACE satellite, these severe weather events became more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense. Figures from 2024 reached twice the average recorded between 2003 and 2020.
NASA pointed to climate change as the most likely cause behind these intensified events, though the pace of severity appeared to outstrip global temperature increases. Bailing Li of the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre noted that confirming a definitive trend requires a much longer dataset. We can’t prove causation yet – we would need a much longer dataset,
Li stated. It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what’s happening here, but other events suggest that (global) warming is the driving factor. We are seeing more and more extreme events around the world, so this is certainly alarming.
Industrial Emissions Warming the Himalayan Slopes
Industrial emissions have contributed to the warming of the snow-capped Himalayan region, according to a September report by World Weather Attribution. Two dozen international researchers analyzed the August rock collapse that triggered devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet, killing over 1,300 people and leaving thousands missing. Recovery and rebuilding efforts in Nepal carry an estimated cost of $5 billion.
Rising temperatures destabilized the ice and permafrost underlying the mountain slopes, though researchers noted the 2015 Nepal earthquake also played a role in initial slope destabilization. Temperatures near Langtang Lirung reached roughly 12 degrees Celsius in the days prior to the disaster, capping a July and August that tied global heat records.
Thawing Permafrost Allows Water to Weaken Bedrock
Fossil fuel-driven global warming has elevated mercury levels at high elevations across the Himalayas compared to preindustrial times. This warming leaves permafrost vulnerable to frequent above-freezing conditions. Permafrost consists of soil and sediment bound by ice, functioning as a seal that blocks water from entering bedrock cracks. Walter Immerzeel, a mountain hydrologist at Utrecht University who contributed to the report, explained that thawing permafrost allows water to seep inward. When that water refreezes, it expands the cracks and weakens the surrounding rock.
Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change and Severe Weather
How many extreme weather studies has Carbon Brief mapped?
Carbon Brief has mapped over 900 studies covering nearly 1,000 extreme weather events and trends. The organisation found that 77 percent of these cases were made more likely or severe by climate change.
What did NASA’s GRACE satellite reveal about recent weather events?
NASA’s GRACE satellite data released in 2025 showed that extreme weather events like droughts and floods became more frequent, longer-lasting, and intense over a five-year period. Figures from 2024 reached twice the average recorded between 2003 and 2020.
What caused the rock collapse and floods in Nepal and Tibet?
A World Weather Attribution report linked industrial emissions and rising temperatures to the disaster by destabilizing ice and permafrost on mountain slopes. Researchers also noted that the 2015 Nepal earthquake likely contributed to prior slope destabilization.
How much is Nepal’s post-disaster recovery expected to cost?
Nepal expects recovery and rebuilding efforts to cost approximately $5 billion following the disaster, which killed over 1,300 people and left thousands missing.
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