At least 17 of Mexico’s 32 states will experience heavy to intense rainfall this Saturday due to the combined influence of Category 5 Hurricane Polo and five other meteorological systems, according to a report released Friday by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN).
Impact of Hurricane Polo Across Mexican States
The SMN, which operates under the Comisión Nacional del Agua (Conagua), reported that intense rainfall ranging from 75 to 150 millimeters will hit Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Veracruz. Authorities warn that these downpours could cause rivers and streams to swell, alongside potential landslides and floods. Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Guerrero face very heavy rainfall between 50 and 75 millimeters. Meanwhile, Baja California Sur, the State of Mexico, Puebla, Michoacán, and Campeche can expect precipitation levels between 25 and 50 millimeters.
Polo maintains its status as a major hurricane southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. Its expansive circulation will reinforce rainfall in Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Nayarit. According to the SMN, the cyclone is expected to weaken to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale on Saturday, with a potential landfall forecast for Monday in Baja California Sur as a Category 2 hurricane.
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Wind, Waves, and Multiple Weather Systems
Beyond rainfall, the cyclone will generate coastal waves between 2.5 and 3.5 meters in Baja California Sur and Nayarit, and between 1.5 and 2.5 meters in Jalisco and Colima. Baja California Sur will also experience wind gusts reaching up to 60 kilometers per hour. Conagua maintains a tropical storm watch stretching from Técpan de Galeana in Guerrero to Manzanillo in Colima.
The severe weather is not driven by Polo alone. The Mexican monsoon, atmospheric instability in the northwest, interior low-pressure zones, a low-pressure area off the coast of Oaxaca carrying potential cyclonic development, and a trough north of the Yucatán Peninsula are interacting to spread storms across the northeast, north, center, oriente, and southeast of the country. These thunderstorms will bring electrical discharges and possible hail in the southern Pacific region. Despite the widespread downpours, a high-pressure system will sustain high temperatures with highs ranging between 35 and 40 degrees Celsius across 15 states.
As Conagua maintains continuous surveillance on Polo and the five supporting systems, tracking the exact trajectory and coastal impact areas remains critical for mitigating flood risks in vulnerable mountain regions and saturated soils.
Frequently Asked Questions
What category is Hurricane Polo currently rated?
Polo is currently a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, though forecasters expect it to weaken to Category 4 on Saturday before a possible landfall as a Category 2 storm on Monday.
Which states are forecasted to receive the heaviest rainfall?
Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Veracruz face the most intense rainfall totals, projected between 75 and 150 millimeters.
Are all parts of Mexico experiencing storms?
No. While at least 17 states face heavy to intense rain, a high-pressure system is keeping temperatures elevated between 35 and 40 degrees Celsius across 15 states.
How will coastal areas near the storm be affected?
Current projections indicate waves between 2.5 and 3.5 meters in Baja California Sur and Nayarit, waves between 1.5 and 2.5 meters in Jalisco and Colima, and wind gusts up to 60 kilometers per hour in Baja California Sur.
What measures are authorities taking?
Conagua is maintaining continuous surveillance over Polo and the other active meteorological systems.
How are local communities preparing for the heavy rains and potential flooding?
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